Waco Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

Are you thinking about buying or selling a home in Waco in 2024? The Waco housing market trends in 2024 show a slight increase in sales and home prices compared to the previous year. While the market isn't experiencing a dramatic boom, it's still a relatively active market with a steady pace of transactions. This makes it important to understand the current trends to make informed decisions. Let's dive deeper into the details that will help you navigate the current market.

Current Trends in the Waco Housing Market

Home Sales

Looking at the numbers, single-unit residential housing sales in Waco have shown a positive trend in 2024. In September 2024, the total number of transactions saw a 7.33% year-over-year (YoY) increase from 232 to 249. This indicates that buyer activity is relatively healthy. Year-to-date (YTD), there were a total of 2,321 closed listings, indicating a slightly slower pace of growth at a 0.96% YTD increase.

Also, single-family home sales have mirrored a similar pattern, increasing by 8.48% YoY, from 224 to 243 transactions in September 2024. The YTD closed listings reached a total of 2,257. While these figures show growth, it's important to remember that these are still relatively modest increases compared to periods of strong market growth we've seen in the past.

Table 1: Single-Unit Residential Activity

Metric	September 2024	September 2023	YoY % Change	YTD 2024	YTD 2023	YoY % Change
Sales	249	232	7.33%	2,321	2,275	0.96%
Dollar Volume	$77,886,372	$66,513,965	17.10%	$757,799,390	$727,567,157	4.27%
Median Close Price	$270,000	$263,078	2.63%	$285,000	$280,000	1.82%

It’s important to consider the broader economic context when interpreting these numbers. For instance, the national housing market has seen mixed signals in 2024. While some areas have experienced a cooling-off period, others have held up relatively well.

Home Prices

The Waco housing market has seen a modest rise in home prices in 2024. The average sales price for single-unit residential properties increased by 9.1% YoY, climbing from $286,698 in September 2023 to $312,797 in September 2024. The average price per square foot also saw a rise from $158.11 to $165.17.

For single-family homes, the picture is similar. The average sales price increased by 9.47% YoY, from $288,806 to $316,151, while the average price per square foot went from $157.61 to $165.31.

When we examine the median sales price, we see a more moderate increase. For single-unit residential properties, the median price rose by 2.63% YoY from $263,078 to $270,000. The median price per square foot rose from $164.31 to $168.99. For single-family homes, the median price increased by 3.77% YoY, from $265,000 to $275,000.

It's interesting to note that the average sales price has seen a larger increase than the median sales price. This could possibly be indicative of a shift in the types of homes being sold, with higher-priced properties potentially driving the average up more significantly.

Housing Supply

The availability of homes for sale, or the housing supply, is an important aspect of any housing market. The months' inventory is a key indicator of this supply. In September 2024, the months' inventory for single-unit residential housing in Waco increased to 5.0 months, up from 4.1 months in September 2023. This indicates a slight increase in the number of homes available for sale relative to buyer demand.

For single-family homes, the months' inventory also rose to 5.0 months, up from 4.1 months in the previous year. This means that, on average, it takes around 5 months to sell all the currently listed homes at the current pace of sales. An increase in months’ inventory typically suggests a shift toward a more balanced market, giving buyers more choices and negotiating power.

Furthermore, the number of active listings has seen a considerable increase. In September 2024, there were 1,223 active listings for single-unit residential properties, compared to 1,029 in September 2023. This represents an increase of 18.85%. For single-family homes, the number of active listings rose to 1,187, a 17.76% increase from the previous year.

The rise in months' inventory and the increase in active listings suggest a trend towards a more balanced market, potentially favoring buyers more than it has in the recent past.

Market Trends

The Waco housing market in 2024 is showing a combination of positive and relatively stable trends. While home sales and prices have risen, the increases are more modest compared to the past few years. The increase in months' inventory and active listings is a crucial shift, signaling that the market might be moving towards a more balanced state.

One of the reasons for the relatively stable market could be the impact of rising interest rates. In 2022-2023, we saw a significant increase in interest rates, which had a cooling effect on the housing market. While interest rates have started to stabilize and even decrease slightly, they are still higher than they were a few years ago. This has likely impacted affordability for some potential homebuyers.

In addition, the local economy plays a role in the housing market. Waco’s job market has shown a healthy year-over-year increase of 1.31%. This job growth can contribute to a positive outlook for the housing market, as more jobs often mean more people looking to buy homes. However, the unemployment rate in Waco also ticked up slightly to 3.70% from 3.51% in 2023. This may slightly offset the positive impacts of job growth.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the current data, I'd say the Waco housing market is leaning towards a more balanced market, though it still has characteristics of a seller's market.

Here's why:

• Increased Housing Inventory: The increase in active listings and months' inventory gives buyers more choices and negotiating power.
• Steady Sales Growth: While sales are up, the pace of growth is modest.
• Modest Price Increases: Home prices are increasing, but at a slower pace than in previous years.

However, here are some aspects that still favor sellers:

• Limited Inventory in Certain Segments: Even with the increase in inventory, some specific price ranges or types of homes might still face limited supply, giving sellers an edge.
• Stronger Local Economy: The relatively strong job market and low unemployment can still attract buyers and help support prices.

My advice for both buyers and sellers is to be well-informed and prepared. Buyers should research thoroughly and be ready to act quickly when they find a suitable property. Sellers should work with a knowledgeable real estate agent to price their homes competitively to attract buyers.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While it's true that the rate of home price increases has slowed down, there's no clear indication that home prices are dropping in the Waco area. The data shows a modest increase in both average and median prices.

I believe that the expectation of rapid price growth that we saw in the past few years has cooled down. However, factors such as limited inventory in certain segments, strong local economy, and healthy job growth are still likely to prevent a significant drop in home prices.

Days to Sell

Days to sell is the total time it takes from when a home is listed to when the closing is complete. For single-unit residential properties, it has increased from 90 days in September 2023 to 103 days in September 2024. For single-family homes, it is also at 103 days in September 2024 up from 91 days in September 2023. The increase in days to sell is another indication of a shift towards a more balanced market. In a seller's market, homes tend to sell much more quickly. The increase in days to sell suggests that buyers have more time to consider their options and negotiate.

However, it's important to note that the time it takes to sell a home can vary depending on several factors, including the specific property, the price, the condition of the property, and the current market conditions in the specific neighborhood.

In my opinion, the increasing days to sell is a healthy sign, allowing buyers and sellers to work through the process more carefully.

Conclusion

The Waco housing market trends in 2024 point to a relatively stable and potentially more balanced market compared to previous years. While the market is still active and experiencing some modest growth in sales and home prices, the increase in housing inventory, and a slightly slower pace of growth compared to previous years suggests that it's a good time for both buyers and sellers to be informed and strategic.

Waco Housing Market Predictions 2024-2025

Based on the latest data, the Waco housing market is expected to see a slight dip in the near future, with a potential decline of -0.3% by the end of October 2024 (Zillow). However, it's not a crash, and there are some interesting things to keep in mind.

Waco Housing Market Predictions for the Next Year

I've been studying the housing market in Waco, and I want to share my insights with you. The Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) Forecast offers some interesting insights into the Waco housing market forecast.

Here are the projected annual changes in home prices for the next few quarters:

Date	Projected Annual Change in Home Prices
October 31, 2024	-0.3%
December 31, 2024	-1.1%
September 30, 2025	0.4%

As you can see from the table, we're expecting a bit of a downturn. By the end of October 2024, there's a chance that the Waco housing market could experience a slight decline in home prices. By the end of the year, we could see a larger drop. However, things are expected to rebound by the end of September 2025, with a small gain of 0.4%.

What About 2026 and Beyond?

Predicting what will happen in the Waco housing market in 2026 is a little tricky. However, based on the current trends, I think it's reasonable to assume that the market will likely continue to recover and stabilize during 2026. We'll have to wait and see what happens with things like interest rates, the economy, and local job growth, but I believe that there's a good chance that the Waco housing market will see a gradual upward trend in the years to come.

Unemployment Rate and its Impact on the Market

The current unemployment rate in Waco, while projected to rise slightly, is still relatively low. It's important to keep this in mind as we look at the Waco housing market forecast. Lower unemployment rates typically have a positive impact on housing markets, as people feel more secure about their jobs and are more likely to purchase homes.

• The unemployment rate in Waco in 2023 was 3.7%.
• The unemployment rate is projected to be 3.1% in April 2024 and 4.1% in August 2024.

Although the unemployment rate may rise a bit, it's still comparatively low compared to the record high of 10.10% that Waco experienced in April 2020.

Overall Thoughts

While the Waco housing market forecast predicts a potential short-term dip in home prices, I'm not expecting a crash. I believe that Waco's strong economy and relatively low unemployment rate will help the market stabilize, and, in the long run, we're likely to see a healthy housing market here. If you're considering buying or selling a home in Waco, it's always a good idea to consult with a local real estate professional who can provide you with the most up-to-date information.