If you're looking to buy or sell a home in Topeka, Kansas, you're probably wondering what's going on with the current Topeka housing market trends. The short answer? It's a competitive market. While home prices have dipped slightly compared to last year, homes are still selling relatively quickly. Let's dive into the details and see what the numbers tell us about the Topeka real estate scene.
Topeka Housing Market Trends: What's Happening in Early 2025?
Home Sales
Let's get right into it – how are home sales trending? The good news is that activity picked up recently!
- According to Redfin, in February 2025, there were 111 homes sold in Topeka.
- This is an increase of 5.7% compared to the 105 homes sold in February of the previous year.
So, while prices might be fluctuating, the number of people buying homes in Topeka is actually up. That means there's still interest in the market.
Home Prices
This is the question on everyone's mind! What's happening with those home prices? Here's a snapshot:
- The median sale price of a home in Topeka in February 2025 was $163,000 (rounded).
- This represents a 4.0% decrease compared to February of the previous year.
While a drop might sound scary, it's important to remember that real estate is cyclical. Prices don't always go up, and a slight dip can actually be a good thing for buyers.
Are Home Prices Dropping?
Well, technically, yes, based on the data from February 2025 compared to February 2024. However, it's crucial to look at the bigger picture. A single month's data doesn't tell the whole story. We need to consider the overall economic climate, interest rates, and local factors to get a truly accurate assessment. The median sale price in Topeka was $162,990.
From what I am seeing, the decline is 4.0% year-over-year. This could be due to a number of factors, including higher interest rates impacting buyer affordability. It's also possible that the market is simply cooling off after a period of rapid growth. Either way, I wouldn't jump to conclusions about a dramatic price crash. It's more likely a market correction.
Comparison with Current National Median Price
So, how does Topeka stack up against the rest of the country?
- The national median home price in January 2025 was $396,900, representing a 4.8% year-over-year change.
Let’s take a look at how the Topeka housing market compares to the national average.
- Topeka's median sale price is significantly lower, around 56% less than the national average.
This affordability is a major draw for people considering a move to Topeka. You can get a lot more house for your money compared to many other parts of the United States.
Housing Supply
The number of homes available for sale is a critical factor in determining whether it's a buyer's or seller's market. Unfortunately, the data is not currently available from the Redfin data that I am sourcing. But based on what I've been observing, anecdotally it appears the number of homes for sale is trending up slightly.
Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?
Based on the Redfin Compete Score, Topeka is considered a very competitive market. This is measured with a Redfin Compete Score™ of 87.
- Many homes receive multiple offers.
- Some buyers even waive contingencies to make their offers more attractive.
- Homes typically sell for about 2% below list price.
- The average time for a home to go pending is approximately 12 days.
This suggests that demand is still strong relative to supply, even with slightly lower prices. Despite the recent price decrease, it leans towards a seller's market, especially for desirable properties in popular neighborhoods.
Market Trends
Let's break down some key trends I'm seeing in the Topeka housing market:
- Days on Market: Homes are staying on the market longer. In February 2025, the median days on market was 35 days, compared to 20 days the previous year. This suggests that buyers have a bit more time to make decisions, but homes are still selling relatively quickly overall.
- Sale-to-List Price Ratio: Data is limited but homes, on average, are selling at 2% below the asking price.
- Homes Sold Above List Price: Data is limited for this metric but many homes are getting multiple offers, which is a good sign for sellers.
Impact of High Mortgage Rates
This is the elephant in the room. Mortgage rates significantly impact housing affordability and market activity. Let's consider the current situation:
- As of mid-March 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.65%.
- The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is about 5.8%.
- Most forecasts predict that these rates will remain at or slightly above this level.
Here is a simple table showing the data on mortgage rates:
| Mortgage Type | Average Rate (Mid-March 2025) |
|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 6.65% |
| 15-Year Fixed Rate | 5.8% |
Higher mortgage rates mean that buyers have to pay more each month for their home loans, reducing their purchasing power. This can lead to a decrease in demand and potentially slower price growth or even price declines. However, rates have been fluctuating wildly in recent weeks, so we'll have to see how things pan out as we get closer to the spring and summer.
Topeka Housing Market Forecast: What's Next for Home Prices?
Based on the latest data, the Topeka housing market forecast suggests moderate price appreciation over the next year, with estimates pointing towards a 3% increase from January 2025 to January 2026. Let's dive into the numbers and break down what this means for you.
What the Experts are Saying
I always like to check in with the experts to get a sense of where the market is headed. According to Zillow's most recent MSA Forecast, here's what we can expect in the coming months. Let’s make it easy to read:
| City | Forecast for Feb 2025 | Forecast for April 2025 | One-Year Forecast (Jan 2025 – Jan 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topeka, KS | 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
This table shows a steady, but not dramatic, rise in home values. The short-term forecasts predict a continued upward trend.
Deeper Dive: Short-Term Projections
Let’s break this down further:
- February 2025: Zillow predicts a 0.5% increase in home values. This suggests a continuation of the current market momentum.
- April 2025: The forecast jumps to 1.1% growth. This indicates a possible acceleration in price appreciation as we move into the spring buying season.
The Year Ahead: January 2025 to January 2026
Looking at the bigger picture, Zillow anticipates a 3% rise in Topeka home prices over the next year. While not a massive surge, it's a healthy sign of stability and growth. It suggests that home values in Topeka are expected to hold steady and gradually increase.
How Does Topeka Compare to Other Kansas Markets?
It’s important to consider how Topeka's housing market stacks up against other cities in Kansas. Here's a quick comparison:
| City | Forecast for Feb 2025 | Forecast for April 2025 | One-Year Forecast (Jan 2025 – Jan 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Topeka, KS | 0.5% | 1.1% | 3.0% |
| Wichita, KS | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.7% |
| Manhattan, KS | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Lawrence, KS | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% |
| Hutchinson, KS | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Salina, KS | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Garden City, KS | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
As you can see, Topeka's projected growth is pretty strong compared to some other areas in the state. While Manhattan is experiencing slower growth, Topeka shows more promise.
Will Home Prices Drop in Topeka? Is a Crash Coming?
Based on the available data, a significant drop or crash in Topeka's housing market seems unlikely in the immediate future. The forecast points towards continued appreciation. However, I always advise keeping a close eye on economic indicators like interest rates, inflation, and job growth, as these factors can influence the real estate market.
My Prediction for 2026
Trying to predict the real estate market beyond a year is always a tricky business, but if the current trends continues, I'd wager that we'll see continued moderate growth in 2026, potentially in the 2-4% range. This assumes a stable economic environment.
What This Means for Buyers and Sellers
- For Buyers: Don't wait forever to jump into the market. Prices are expected to keep going up, so delaying your purchase could mean paying more later.
- For Sellers: The forecast suggests a favorable market for sellers. You're likely to see your home appreciate in value, but it's still essential to price your home competitively.
Should You Invest in the Topeka Real Estate Market?
Population Growth and Trends
- Population growth in Topeka has shown stability over the years. While it may not experience the rapid growth seen in some major cities, this can be an advantage for real estate investors. A steady population often translates to consistent rental demand, making it an attractive choice for long-term investments.
- The city's location within Kansas provides access to a broader market and attracts residents from the surrounding areas, contributing to population stability.
Economy and Jobs
- Topeka benefits from a diverse economy that includes government, healthcare, education, and manufacturing sectors. This economic diversity can provide a buffer against economic downturns, reducing the risk for real estate investors.
- The presence of state government offices and educational institutions such as Washburn University contributes to stable employment opportunities, a factor that supports the rental market and real estate investments.
Livability and Other Factors
- Topeka offers a high level of livability, with a range of amenities, recreational opportunities, and cultural attractions. A strong sense of community and family-friendly environments can attract and retain residents, ensuring a stable tenant pool for real estate investors.
- Low crime rates, quality healthcare, and educational facilities further enhance the city's appeal for residents, making it an attractive place to invest in real estate.
Rental Property Market Size and Growth for Investors
- The rental property market in Topeka is significant and offers a variety of investment opportunities, from single-family homes to multi-unit apartments. The city's stable population and economic base contribute to the consistent demand for rental properties.
- Over the years, the rental market in Topeka has shown modest but reliable growth. Investors can benefit from rental income and potential property appreciation.
Other Factors Related to Real Estate Investing
- The cost of living in Topeka is relatively low, which can be appealing to investors looking for affordable real estate opportunities. This affordability can result in higher cash flow and returns on investment.
- The city's strategic location in the heart of Kansas provides access to major transportation routes, making it a potential logistics and distribution hub. This can drive economic growth and create additional rental demand for industrial and commercial real estate.
- Topeka's real estate market is less volatile compared to larger metropolitan areas. While the potential for rapid appreciation might be lower, the risk of significant market crashes is also reduced, offering stability for real estate investors.
Considering these factors, investing in the Topeka real estate market can be an attractive opportunity for investors seeking a stable, reliable, and potentially lucrative market. The city's steady population, diverse economy, and quality of life indicators make it a favorable choice for those looking to build a real estate portfolio with long-term sustainability.
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