Texas Housing Market: Prices, Trends, Forecast 2025

If you're wondering what's happening with the current Texas housing market trends, here's the quick answer: The market is seeing increased sales and new listings, mortgage rates are on the rise after a period of stability, and home prices are holding steady. In short, the market is dynamic and requires a closer look to fully understand. Let's dive into the details.

Current Texas Housing Market Trends: What You Need to Know

I've been keeping a close eye on the real estate market here in Texas, and things are definitely interesting. It's not the frenzy we saw a couple of years ago, but it's not a slump either. As someone who's passionate about real estate and wants to help people make informed decisions, I'm going to break down the key trends shaping the Texas housing market right now.

Home Sales

One thing that's caught my attention is the uptick in home sales. Usually, things cool off in the fall, but according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center, October 2024 saw an 8.8% increase in total home sales compared to September. That's a pretty significant jump.

• Overall Increase: October saw 28,859 homes sold, an 8.8% increase month-over-month (MOM).
• San Antonio Leads the Way: San Antonio experienced the highest sales increase, nearly 17% (2,906 homes).
• Houston Follows: Houston saw a solid 12% increase, with 8,066 homes sold.
• Austin Gains: Austin experienced a 7% increase, with 2,488 homes sold.
• Dallas Declines: Dallas was the only one of the “Big Four” to see a decrease, with sales down by 1% (7,432 homes).

It's a mixed bag, but the overall trend is positive. I think this shows that there's still demand out there, even with higher interest rates.

Home Prices

Home prices in Texas have remained relatively steady overall. While we're not seeing the rapid appreciation of the past, prices aren't plummeting either. This provides more stability for buyers and sellers.

• Statewide Stability: The median home price in Texas held steady in October at $335,000.
• Dallas Sees Increase: Dallas experienced the largest increase, up 3% from $393,340 to $404,995.
• Austin Also Rises: Austin followed with a 1.8% increase, from $430,304 to $437,835.
• San Antonio Slightly Up: San Antonio rose slightly, by 0.3%, now at $306,624.
• Houston Dips Slightly: Houston saw a minor decrease of 0.1%, now at $337,852.

City	September Median Price	October Median Price	MOM Change
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington	$393,340	$404,995	3%
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos	$430,304	$437,835	1.8%
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX	$305,624	$306,624	0.3%
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands	$338,191	$337,852	-0.1%

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While the median price remains relatively stable in Texas, a deeper dive reveals a nuanced picture. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, which is a more reliable indicator of price changes, fell 0.3% MOM in October but is still up 1.6% year-over-year (YOY). Austin is an exception, with annual appreciation below the state average and a decrease of 1.5% YOY in October. This suggests that while overall prices aren't drastically falling, some areas are experiencing slight downward pressure.

Housing Supply

The good news for buyers is that housing inventory is on the rise. This means more choices and less competition.

• Active Listings Increase: The number of active listings statewide increased by 2% from 122,192 to 124,663.
• Houston Leads: Houston experienced the largest increase with 30,345 listings (up 2.4%).
• Dallas Follows: Dallas is close behind, with 28,704 listings (up 1.8%).
• Austin Slightly Down: Austin saw a slight decrease to 28,704 listings (down 0.6%).
• San Antonio Steady: San Antonio remained relatively stable with around 14,000 listings.

New listings also continued to increase in October 2024. Among the Big Four, Houston and San Antonio experienced MOM increases of 10.3 percent (14,627) and 8.6 percent (4,447), respectively. Dallas and Austin grew by 7.3 percent (12,063) and 5 percent (3,774), respectively.

This increase in housing supply could lead to prices stabilizing further, or even decreasing slightly in some areas.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

It's becoming more of a balanced market than we've seen in recent years, but it still is leaning slightly toward sellers. There are more homes to choose from than before, giving buyers more leverage, but demand is still strong enough to keep prices from falling dramatically in most areas.

The state’s average days on market (DOM) fell to 61 days in October, a two-day drop. Houston had the largest decrease—from 53 to 50 days, a 4.3 percent decrease. This means properties are getting sold quicker, but there are exceptions to this. Dallas was the only Big Four city to see an increase in DOM—from 54 to 56 days, a 4 percent increase.

Market Trends

Here's a summary of the main market trends I'm seeing:

• Increased Sales: Home sales are up, defying the typical seasonal slowdown.
• Rising Inventory: More homes are coming on the market, giving buyers more options.
• Steady Prices: Home prices are holding relatively steady, but with slight variations across different cities.
• Interest Rate Fluctuations: Mortgage rates have started to climb again after a period of decline.
• New Construction: The number of new-home starts is increasing, adding to the housing supply.

Impact of High Mortgage Rates (Hovering Around 7% as of January 2025)

Let's talk about those interest rates. They've been a major factor in shaping the Texas housing market. With mortgage rates hovering around 7%, affordability is definitely a concern for many potential buyers.

The average ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield rose by 38 basis points, reaching 4.1 percent in October. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate rose by 25 basis points to 6.43 percent. October was the first month of increase for both rates since spring 2024.

This can slow down demand as monthly payments become more expensive. It also means that buyers need to be even more strategic in their approach.

However, the market is proving resilient. Even with higher rates, people are still buying homes. This could be due to a number of factors, including:

• Strong Economy: Texas continues to have a strong economy, which is supporting the housing market.
• Population Growth: People are still moving to Texas, creating demand for housing.
• Changing Priorities: For many people, owning a home is still a top priority, even if it means paying a higher interest rate.

Texas Housing Market Predictions 2025-2026

Is the Texas housing market cooling down? Are home prices going to drop? If you're asking these questions, you're not alone. Many people are wondering what the future holds for real estate in Texas. The good news is, based on recent forecasts, a widespread crash is unlikely, and while some areas might see price dips, others are still projected to grow. The overall picture is nuanced and depends heavily on the specific region you're looking at. So, let's dive in and explore what the experts are predicting for the Texas housing market!

Understanding the Forecast Data

Before we look at specific numbers, it’s important to understand where the data comes from. I've looked at forecasts from Zillow, a reliable source for real estate data. Their predictions focus on the percentage change in home values for various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Texas. It's not about the absolute value of homes, but rather how much prices are expected to rise or fall over a period.

Here's a breakdown of the data:

Texas Metro Area	Price Change Dec 2024	Price Change Feb 2025	Price Change Nov 2025
Dallas, TX	-0.2%	-0.5%	1%
Houston, TX	-0.1%	-0.1%	0.6%
San Antonio, TX	-0.2%	-0.2%	0.3%
Austin, TX	-0.5%	-1.4%	-0.4%
McAllen, TX	0.1%	0.8%	4.2%
El Paso, TX	0.1%	0.6%	3.7%
Killeen, TX	-0.3%	-0.4%	1.7%
Corpus Christi, TX	-0.1%	-0.2%	-1.1%
Brownsville, TX	0.2%	0.8%	4.3%
Beaumont, TX	0.3%	0.3%	-2.4%
Lubbock, TX	-0.3%	-0.5%	0.1%
Longview, TX	0.5%	1.1%	1%
Waco, TX	-0.1%	0%	2.4%
Amarillo, TX	0.1%	0.3%	1.7%
Laredo, TX	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.9%
College Station, TX	0%	0%	0.4%
Tyler, TX	0.2%	0.9%	3.1%
Abilene, TX	0%	0.6%	1%
Midland, TX	0.4%	0.4%	-2.2%
Odessa, TX	0.3%	0.1%	-2.7%
Wichita Falls, TX	0.4%	1.3%	3.6%
Texarkana, TX	-0.1%	-0.3%	-0.9%
Sherman, TX	0%	0.5%	2.6%
San Angelo, TX	0.4%	0.5%	0.9%
Victoria, TX	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%
Lufkin, TX	-0.2%	0.1%	0.5%
Athens, TX	-0.3%	-0.3%	1.3%
Huntsville, TX	-0.1%	0%	0%
Rio Grande City, TX	-0.9%	-1.1%	-3.8%
Nacogdoches, TX	0.4%	0.7%	0.8%
Palestine, TX	0.3%	1.1%	3.3%
Eagle Pass, TX	0.9%	1.9%	3%
Kerrville, TX	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.6%
Corsicana, TX	0.3%	1.2%	4%
Jacksonville, TX	0.1%	0.9%	4.1%
Paris, TX	0%	0.1%	1.5%
Alice, TX	-0.4%	-1.3%	-6.6%
Del Rio, TX	0.3%	0.8%	1.3%
Mount Pleasant, TX	-0.3%	0%	1.4%
Stephenville, TX	0.4%	1.3%	4.6%
El Campo, TX	0%	-0.4%	-1.8%
Gainesville, TX	0.5%	1.2%	2.8%
Brownwood, TX	0%	0.3%	0.9%
Sulphur Springs, TX	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.2%
Bay City, TX	0.3%	0.5%	-0.4%
Brenham, TX	-0.2%	-0.1%	0.6%
Big Spring, TX	-2.5%	-4.9%	-10.1%
Plainview, TX	-0.8%	-1.3%	-3%
Beeville, TX	0%	-0.3%	-4.7%
Kingsville, TX	-0.1%	-0.2%	-1.6%
Mineral Wells, TX	0.1%	0.5%	2.4%
Fredericksburg, TX	-0.3%	-0.4%	1%
Uvalde, TX	0.2%	0.7%	-0.5%
Pampa, TX	-0.7%	-0.8%	-2.4%
Levelland, TX	-0.3%	-0.3%	-2.5%
Dumas, TX	0.5%	1%	-0.7%
Borger, TX	-0.1%	0.2%	-1.9%
Raymondville, TX	-0.8%	-2%	-7.5%
Port Lavaca, TX	-0.3%	-0.6%	-1.1%
Hereford, TX	0.4%	1.1%	3.2%
Andrews, TX	0.2%	0.1%	-2%
Snyder, TX	0.2%	0.5%	-2.1%
Sweetwater, TX	-1.4%	-3.3%	-7.8%
Pecos, TX	-1.3%	-3.3%	-9.9%
Zapata, TX	-0.4%	-1.6%	-6.5%
Vernon, TX	-1.3%	-2.6%	-5%
Lamesa, TX	-0.3%	-1.2%	-5.5%

What This Forecast Tells Us?

Let's break down what these numbers mean for you as a potential buyer or seller:

• Short-Term Cooling: Many major Texas metros, including Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin, are expected to see slight dips in home prices by the end of 2024. This cooling is predicted to continue into early 2025, with Austin experiencing the most significant drop (-1.4%) in February. This suggests a potential window for buyers to negotiate a better deal.
• Not a Crash: These are small percentage decreases and definitely not a crash. We are seeing a correction in the market and it is not a sign of a drastic drop. It is just a cooling off.
• Varied Regional Outlook: While some areas see price declines, others show positive growth. Areas like McAllen, El Paso, and Brownsville are predicted to see strong growth through November 2025. These areas might be attractive for investors looking for appreciation.
• Long-Term Growth: By November 2025, most areas are projected to see some growth, even if it’s small. This indicates a potential for the Texas housing market to stabilize and slowly appreciate.
• Smaller Towns, Big Moves: The forecast also shows interesting trends in smaller cities. Stephenville and Corsicana show some significant growth towards the end of 2025. This points to a shift in market dynamics beyond the major urban hubs.
• Cautionary Areas: Some areas, particularly in West Texas, such as Big Spring, Pecos, and Sweetwater, are forecast to see significant price declines. I would personally recommend doing more research if you're looking at these areas to buy or sell.

My Thoughts on the Texas Housing Forecast

Based on these projections, I believe that we're seeing a necessary adjustment in the Texas housing market. The rapid price increases of recent years were not sustainable, and the current slowdown is a sign of a more balanced market.

Here are some personal observations:

• Interest Rates: Mortgage interest rates play a huge role in these trends. If rates remain high, this could continue to put downward pressure on prices. However, if rates begin to drop, we might see some upward push on pricing as well.
• Migration: Texas continues to attract people from other states due to its economy and relatively lower cost of living (when compared to places like California). This migration could create demand which could support prices in the long run.
• Local Economies: Each city has its own unique economic drivers. Areas with strong employment sectors are likely to fare better than those that do not. I strongly advise anyone interested in buying or selling in Texas to research their specific city and neighborhood.

What about 2026?

While the data here stops at November 2025, I think it's highly likely that the overall trends we're seeing now will continue into 2026:

• Continued Gradual Growth: I don’t expect a massive price boom, but I also do not think we'll see a large drop either. I believe that the Texas market should continue to experience gradual growth in most areas.
• More Nuance: The market will be more diverse, with some areas performing exceptionally well, some stabilizing, and a few continuing to struggle. So there will be no “one size fits all” scenario.
• Importance of Local Data: It will be more crucial than ever for buyers and sellers to look at specific local data and not just rely on the broad state trends.

The Takeaway

The Texas housing market is not about to crash, but it is changing. There are opportunities for both buyers and sellers, but you need to be informed and strategic. If you're thinking about making a move, consider:

• Doing your homework: Look at data for your specific area, and research local market conditions.
• Talking to an expert: A real estate agent in your area is the best source of local knowledge.
• Thinking long-term: Real estate is generally a long-term investment. Don't make decisions based solely on short-term fluctuations.

The Texas housing market has always been dynamic, and it's crucial to stay informed about the latest trends and forecasts. By keeping an eye on data and understanding local conditions, you can make wise decisions.

Best Places to Buy a House in Texas in 2025

These are some of the best areas to buy a home in Texas based on home valuations, property taxes, homeownership rates, housing prices, and real estate trends (Niche.com). The ranking is based on statistics from the United States Census Bureau, the FBI, and other sources. Cottonwood Creek South is the best place in Texas to buy a house.

1. Cottonwood Creek South, Richardson, TX: This Richardson neighborhood offers a suburban lifestyle close to the buzz of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex's tech industry.

2. Arapaho, Richardson, TX: Similar to Cottonwood Creek South, Arapaho is another neighborhood in Richardson offering a quieter suburban experience with access to the city's amenities.

3. Lakeside City, TX: Just south of Richardson, Lakeside City is a family-friendly town known for its good schools.

4. Fulshear, TX: This Fort Bend County town provides a mix of rural and suburban living with easy access to Houston. Fulshear is ideal if you want a quieter area while staying close to the city.

5. Canyon Creek South, Richardson, TX: Yet another Richardson neighborhood on the list, Canyon Creek South offers a suburban setting near the opportunities of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex.

6. Heights Park, Richardson, TX: Rounding out the Richardson trio, Heights Park provides a suburban atmosphere with access to the amenities of a big city.

7. Shady Hollow, TX: As a suburb of Austin, Shady Hollow blends small-town charm with the excitement of the state capital. It's a popular choice for families and young professionals.

8. Red Lick, TX: Located in Bowie County, Red Lick is a more rural area with a small-town feel. This is a good option for those seeking an affordable place to live with plenty of space.

9. Woodway, TX: Situated near Waco, Woodway is a growing suburb known for its peaceful atmosphere and scenic Hill Country views.

10. Timberbrook, Plano, TX: This Plano neighborhood offers a suburban lifestyle with easy access to the amenities of both Plano and Dallas. Plano is another major city in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, known for its strong economy and good schools.

Texas Cities with Highest Home Price Appreciation

Texas boasts a diverse landscape, and these 10 cities reflect that variety. These are the top ten cities in Texas that have had the highest real estate appreciation since 2000 (Neighborhoodscout).

1. Westworth Village: This could be a smaller town or an affluent suburb that has seen significant growth in property values since 2000.
2. Gustine: Perhaps a rural town or a smaller city, Gustine's popularity surge has likely driven up housing prices.
3. Balmorhea: Its unique location near a natural spring or recreational area might be the reason behind Balmorhea's increased real estate interest.
4. Garden City: This could be a growing city or one that's been revitalized, attracting new residents and boosting property values.
5. Mico: Potentially a smaller community or a hidden gem, Mico might have experienced a surge in interest due to affordability or a specific lifestyle factor.
6. Runge: This rural town could be experiencing growth due to its proximity to a larger city or changing economic factors.
7. Granger: Similar to Runge, Granger might be a growing rural community benefiting from its location or new development.
8. Encinal: Potentially a historic town or one with natural beauty, Encinal's real estate market might have boomed due to its unique appeal.
9. Falls City: This could be a smaller city undergoing revitalization or attracting new residents for specific reasons, leading to rising property values.
10. Wingate: Potentially a rural town or a lakeside community, Wingate might have seen a rise in real estate interest due to its location or changing lifestyle preferences.