Housing Prices Archives

Why Housing Prices Are So High in Today’s Market?

November 19, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

If you are looking for a home in the US, you may have noticed that the prices are skyrocketing. The nationwide median sale price of existing-home (for all housing types ) is now $404,500 (Sept 2024). Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale is shrinking, making the competition among buyers fierce. Some buyers are offering cash or tens of thousands of dollars over the asking price to secure a deal.

Inventory in September stood at a 4.3-month supply, a level considered still a seller’s market. What is driving this housing boom? And is there any relief in sight for aspiring homeowners? In this blog post, we will explore some of the factors that explain why housing prices are so high in the US and what can be done to address the affordability crisis.

Reasons Why Housing Prices Are So High

The high cost of housing is a major hurdle for many people, especially first-time homebuyers. It's a complex issue with several contributing factors that create an imbalance between supply and demand. Here's a deeper dive into why housing prices are on the rise:

Demand Outpaces Supply:

Shifting Preferences: The COVID-19 pandemic reshaped housing preferences. People sought more space and comfort, driving demand towards suburban and rural areas. This migration put a strain on housing stock in those areas, while urban markets saw a temporary stall in sales.
Low Interest Rates: In response to the pandemic, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates significantly. This made borrowing for mortgages cheaper, enticing more people into the market. However, it also incentivized existing homeowners to refinance, taking their properties off the market.
Millennial Boom: Millennials, the largest generation in the US, are reaching peak homebuying age. They're forming households faster than previous generations, often with higher incomes and savings due to higher education levels and delayed marriage/childbearing. This surge in demand puts pressure on a limited housing stock.

Limited Supply:

Post-Crash Rebuilding Gap: The housing bubble burst of 2008 led to a significant slowdown in new home construction. The industry hasn't fully recovered, leaving the US with a shortage of millions of units according to Freddie Mac.
Construction Cost Hurdles: Building costs have risen due to factors like labor shortages, rising material prices, and stricter building codes. This discourages developers from undertaking new projects, further limiting supply.
Zoning Regulations: Zoning laws in many areas restrict the development of high-density housing options, like apartments or townhomes. This can limit the number of units built on available land and push single-family home prices even higher.
Land Price Squeeze: The cost of land itself has also increased, especially in desirable locations. This adds a significant upfront cost for developers and contributes to higher final sale prices.
Subsidy Disparity: Some government programs unintentionally favor renting over owning. This can discourage investment in new housing construction and limit overall supply.

The Domino Effect:

High housing prices have a ripple effect throughout the economy. It can make it difficult for young adults to establish themselves financially, discourages geographic mobility for work opportunities, and puts a strain on renters who face rising lease costs.

Finding solutions to this complex issue requires a multi-pronged approach. Addressing zoning regulations, streamlining permitting processes, and incentivizing new construction are crucial steps. Additionally, policies that encourage homeownership alongside a healthy rental market can help create a more balanced housing ecosystem.

The Impact of High Housing Prices

The high housing prices have significant implications for the economy and society. Some of the impacts are:

Reduced affordability: High housing prices make it harder for many Americans to afford a home or rent a decent place. According to Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies, nearly half of all renters and one-third of all homeowners were cost-burdened in 2020, meaning they spent more than 30% of their income on housing. This leaves less money for other essential needs, such as food, health care and education.
Increased inequality: High housing prices widen the wealth gap between homeowners and renters, as well as between different regions and races. Homeowners benefit from rising home equity and tax advantages, while renters face rising rents and insecurity. Moreover, some areas, especially coastal cities, have seen much faster appreciation than others, creating disparities in opportunities and access to services. Additionally, racial minorities face more barriers to homeownership, such as discrimination, lower incomes and less access to credit.
Decreased mobility: High housing prices reduce the ability of people to move to areas with better jobs, schools and amenities. This limits their economic prospects and social networks. It also reduces the efficiency of the labor market, as employers have difficulty attracting and retaining workers in high-cost areas.

What Can Be Done to Lower Housing Prices?

There is no easy or quick solution to lower housing prices in the US. However, some possible steps that could help are:

Increase supply: The most obvious way to lower housing prices is to build more homes, especially affordable ones. This would require easing zoning restrictions, streamlining permitting processes, providing incentives and subsidies for developers, expanding infrastructure and public services, and encouraging innovation and sustainability in construction methods and materials.
Reduce demand: Another way to lower housing prices is to reduce the demand for homes, especially from speculative investors or foreign buyers who drive up prices and crowd out local residents. This could involve imposing taxes or fees on vacant or second homes, tightening lending standards or increasing interest rates.
Expand assistance: A third way to lower housing prices is to expand assistance for low-income and moderate-income households who struggle to afford housing. This could include increasing rental vouchers, expanding tax credits, providing down payment assistance or creating shared equity programs.

To summarize, housing prices are so high in the US because of a combination of factors that have created a mismatch between demand and supply. This has resulted in reduced affordability, increased inequality and decreased mobility for many Americans. To address this challenge, policymakers, developers, lenders and consumers need to work together to increase supply, reduce demand and expand assistance for those who need it most.

Recommended Read:

Average Housing Prices by Year in the United States

August 24, 2024 by Marco Santarelli

If you are interested in the history of the US housing market, you might want to know how the average and median prices of houses have changed over time. In this blog post, we will use data from various sources to show you the trends and patterns of house prices in the US from 1953 to 2023.

Defining Terms

The average price of houses sold is the total value of all houses sold divided by the number of houses sold in a given period. The median price of houses sold is the middle point of the distribution of house prices, such that half of the houses are sold for more and half for less than that price. The average price can be influenced by outliers, such as very expensive or very cheap houses, while the median price is more representative of the typical house price.

Average Housing Prices by Year

According to data from FRED, a database maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the average price of houses sold in the US in the second quarter of 2023 was $495,100, down from $505,300 in the first quarter and $552,600 in the fourth quarter of 2022. The average price peaked at $552,600 in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was the highest level since the series began in 1963. The lowest average price was $17,200 in the first quarter of 1963.

Median Housing Prices by Year

The median price of houses sold in the US in the second quarter of 2023 was $390,500, down from $399,900 in the first quarter and $417,800 in the fourth quarter of 2022. The median price also peaked at $417,800 in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was also the highest level since the series began in 1963. The lowest median price was $17,500 in the first quarter of 1963.

Historical Trends

The chart below shows the historical trends of both the average and median prices of houses sold in the US from 1963 to 2023.

Average Housing Prices by Year in the United States — Source: FRED

As you can see, both prices have increased significantly over time, but with some fluctuations along the way. The most notable periods of rapid growth were from 1975 to 1980, from 1997 to 2006, and from 2012 to 2022. The most notable periods of decline were from 1980 to 1982, from 2006 to 2012, and from 2022 to 2023.

Factors Affecting Housing Prices

Supply and demand: When there are more buyers than sellers, or more demand than supply, house prices tend to rise. When there are more sellers than buyers, or more supply than demand, house prices tend to fall.
Income and population growth: When people have more income or when there are more people looking for housing, house prices tend to rise. When people have less income or when there are fewer people looking for housing, house prices tend to fall.
Inflation and interest rates: When inflation is high or when interest rates are high, house prices tend to fall. When inflation is low or when interest rates are low, house prices tend to rise.
Consumer confidence and expectations: When people are optimistic about the economy or when they expect house prices to rise in the future, they are more likely to buy houses. When people are pessimistic about the economy or when they expect house prices to fall in the future, they are less likely to buy houses.
Government policies and regulations: When the government provides subsidies or incentives for home buyers or home builders, house prices tend to rise. When the government imposes taxes or restrictions on home buyers or home builders, house prices tend to fall.
Regional variations: House prices can vary widely across different regions or markets depending on local factors such as climate, geography, amenities, infrastructure, culture, and preferences.

Historical Median Prices of Existing Homes

If we go back further in time, we can find data on the median price of existing homes (not new homes) from another source: DQYDJ, a website that provides financial calculators and tools. According to DQYDJ, the median price of existing homes in the US in September 2021 was $363,300 (in nominal terms) or $363,300 (in inflation-adjusted terms). The data goes back to January 1953, when the median price was $18,080 (in nominal terms) or $207,781 (in inflation-adjusted terms).

Historical Trends of Median Prices of Existing Homes

The chart below shows the historical trends of both the nominal and inflation-adjusted median prices of existing homes in the US from 1953 to 2021.

Trends of Median Home Prices by Year — Credits: DQYDJ

As you can see, both prices have also increased significantly over time, but with some differences from the new home prices. The nominal price has increased by almost 20 times since 1953, while the inflation-adjusted price has increased by about 1.7 times. The inflation-adjusted price shows that real home values have not increased as much as nominal home values over time. The nominal price also shows more volatility than the inflation-adjusted price, especially during periods of high inflation or deflation.

To summarize, this blog post has shown you how the average and median prices of houses sold and existing homes have changed over time in the US from 1953 to 2023. You have seen that both prices have increased significantly over time but with some fluctuations and differences along the way. You have also learned some of the main factors that influence house prices in the US. We hope you have found this information useful and interesting. Thank you for reading!

Where Are Housing Prices Falling 2022?

November 11, 2022 by Marco Santarelli

Fortune reached out Moody's Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. The financial intelligence business predicted home price changes in 414 markets between 2022 and 2024. Moody's Analytics expects that 210 of the nation's 414 major housing markets will see home prices falling in the next two years and 204 will see home prices rise. 183 of the 413 biggest U.S. home markets are “overvalued” by more than 25%. Boise, Idaho, is 71.7% overvalued, and Flagstaff, Arizona, is 60.6%.

Redfin revealed its “risk score” on Friday, which identifies the home markets that are most vulnerable to a “housing slump.” The greater a market's “risk score,” the more likely it is that house prices will fall year over year. Redfin examined 98 regional housing markets and evaluated indicators such as home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Among the 98 markets measured by Redfin, Riverside had the highest likelihood of seeing a “housing downturn.”

It was followed by Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, Bakersfield, Phoenix, Tampa, and Tucson. Popular migration destinations where home prices soared during the pandemic, such as Boise, Phoenix, and Tampa, are most likely to see the effects of a housing downturn amplified and year-over-year home prices decline if the economy enters a recession, a scenario that some economists believe is likely as inflation persists and stock markets stumble.

<<<Also Read: Will the Housing Market Crash? >>>

Homeowners in those markets who are considering selling should market their properties as soon as possible to avoid price drops. Rust Belt cities like Cleveland and Buffalo, which are still inexpensive, are the most resilient to a housing market crash. The U.S. housing market slowed significantly in the spring due to rising mortgage rates. Redfin studied which metros are most vulnerable to home-price reductions if the country enters a recession and which are most immune to an economic slump.

Recession-proof northern metros, including Cleveland and Buffalo, NY, are relatively inexpensive. Prospective homebuyers in these places can proceed with confidence. Redfin's examination of 98 U.S. metros with relevant data utilizes home-price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, and home-price growth. Each metro is given an overall risk score relative to the others. 100 indicates the highest possibility of a housing market slump, including home-price decreases, while 0 indicates the lowest.

“Recession fears are escalating, mostly because the Fed has signaled it will continue to raise interest rates to tame inflation and cool consumer demand. Higher interest rates led to surging mortgage rates, which have already cooled down the housing market,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “If the U.S. does enter a recession, we’re unlikely to see a housing-market crash like in the Great Recession because the factors affecting the economy are different: Most homeowners have a fair amount of home equity and not much debt and unemployment is low.”

Housing Markets at Risk of Falling Home Prices

If the U.S. enters a recession, Riverside's home market will chill the most. It has the highest danger score of any major U.S. city, 84. It's more likely than other metros to see prices drop year over year during a recession or economic slowdown, according to housing and economic statistics. Riverside, which includes San Bernardino, Ontario, and Palm Springs, has variable house values and was a favorite location during the epidemic for both permanent movers and second-home buyers.

Riverside is followed by Boise (76.9), Cape Coral, FL (76.7), North Port, FL (75), and Las Vegas (74.2).

Sacramento, CA (73.1), Bakersfield, CA (72.2), Phoenix (72), Tampa, FL (70.7), and Tucson, AZ (70.1) round out the top 10.

Many of these housing markets, like Riverside, are popular migration destinations or have quickly growing property prices, both of which increase their likelihood of a housing slump. Boise, Cape Coral, North Port, Las Vegas, Sacramento, and Phoenix were among the 20 fastest-cooling areas in May when mortgage rates reached 5.5%. As the economy continues to decline, prices may fall in many of these metros. Six of the 10 areas most at risk of downturns are among the most popular destinations for Redfin.com users moving from one metro to another.

Maricopa County (Phoenix) and Riverside County gained more residents from other parts of the U.S. than anywhere else in 2021, according to the U.S. Census. The most vulnerable metros have likewise seen an outsized price rise. North Port has the nation's fastest-growing house values, up 30.5 percent year over year in May, followed by Tampa (28.1 percent) and Las Vegas (26.8 percent ). Overall, nine of the ten most vulnerable locations had faster-growing house values than the national median (the exception is Sacramento, however, home prices there rose more than 40% throughout the pandemic, reaching $610,000 in May 2022).

Several of those metros went from inexpensive to unaffordable during the epidemic, owing in part to the migration of individuals from other locations. Among them is Boise, where the typical home price increased from $330,000 to $550,000 between May 2020 and May 2022, and Phoenix, where it increased from $300,000 to $485,000.

“Boise’s market is already turning around, as a lot of the people who moved to Idaho during the pandemic are either moving back to their hometowns or cashing in and moving to more affordable places. The housing market was hot during the pandemic, largely because of out-of-town buyers,” said Boise Redfin agent Shauna Pendleton.

Three at-risk metros are in California and three in Florida. San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco experienced relatively moderate price increases throughout the epidemic, its people tend to have high salaries and considerable home equity, and their housing markets started falling fast in the first half of 2022, mainly owing to collapsing tech stocks. Not all homes in these metros will lose value. Large single-family houses in spread-out areas are recession-proof.

Housing Markets in Which Prices Are Unlikely to Fall

Relatively affordable Rust Belt metros are most resilient in the face of a recession. In case of a recession, Akron, Ohio has the lowest risk of experiencing a housing decline. It has the lowest total risk score of any major US city at 29.6. Low home-price volatility, a low debt-to-income ratio, a small number of second houses, and the fact that properties in Akron are unlikely to be flipped are some of the characteristics that make the city relatively stable.

With an overall risk score of 30.4, Akron is followed by Philadelphia, Montgomery County, PA (31.4), El Paso, TX (32.2), and Cleveland (32.4). The top ten include Cincinnati (32.6), Boston (32.6), Buffalo, NY (33.1), Kansas City, MO (33.4), and Rochester, NY (34.4). Almost all of those metros are inexpensive and have relatively slow-increasing prices, both of which would benefit their housing markets in the event of a recession.

Almost all of the most resilient metros are located in the northern United States, either in the Rust Belt or on the East Coast. Three of them are in Ohio, two in New York, and two in Pennsylvania. In nine of the ten most resilient metros, prices climbed at a slower rate than the national average (El Paso is the exception).

Seven of the 10 metros least in danger of a housing downturn had a median sale price below $300,000 in May, and nine of them were below the $431,000 national median. Affordability benefits property markets in a recession because more people can buy houses, and such locations may attract out-of-town buyers. Boston is pricey, although property prices climbed modestly throughout the epidemic. It's busy and lost residents as remote work became prevalent.

U.S. Metros Most and Least Susceptible to a Housing Downturn in the Next Recession

Ranked by highest to the lowest chance of a housing downturn. The ranking combines 10 indicators to come up with an overall risk score for each metro, relative to the other metros in this analysis. The highest possible score is 100 and the lowest possible score is 0. The indicators are as follows: home price volatility, average debt-to-income ratio, average home-loan-to-value ratio, labor market shock, percent of homes flipped, how much the housing market is “cooling” compared with other metros, the year-over-year change in domestic migration, the share of homes in the metro that are second homes, year-over-year price growth and elasticity of supply. Each factor is weighted equally.

U.S. Metro Area	Overall Score	Average Home-Loan-to-Value Ratio, 2021	Percent of Homes Flipped in 2021	Rank: How Quickly Housing Market Cooled in First Half of 2022	Net Domestic Migration in 2021, YoY	Share of Second Homes, 2021	Price Growth in 2021, YoY
Riverside, CA	84	83%	4.50%	15	19,204	7.70%	21.00%
Boise, ID	76.9			6	6,782	6.00%	30.90%
Cape Coral, FL	76.7	81%	2.90%	11	7,345	23.40%	23.60%
North Port, FL	75	79%	4.40%	18	8,283	20.20%	23.30%
Las Vegas, NV	74.2	84%	8.30%	12	-15,143	7.60%	18.60%
Sacramento, CA	73.1	81%	5.40%	2	4,157	4.30%	19.30%
Bakersfield, CA	72.2	87%	3.80%	21	6,111	2.50%	17.30%
Phoenix, AZ	72	82%	10.30%	17	-15,530	7.20%	25.40%
Tampa, FL	70.7	85%	7.40%	22	524	8.10%	19.60%
Tucson, AZ	70.1	84%	7.70%	54	-2,677	7.10%	21.50%
San Diego, CA	69.8	81%	5.30%	8	-8,189	3.70%	17.50%
Jacksonville, FL	69.3	85%	7.20%	36	4,136	6.20%	16.60%
Stockton, CA	68.2	84%	4.70%	5	3,578	1.00%	19.30%
Knoxville, TN	67	86%	4.60%	13	4,527	5.20%	18.30%
Orlando, FL	63.8	85%	6.40%	31	-6,536	8.70%	16.70%
Charleston, SC	63.4	85%	3.80%	67	-2,921	7.60%	15.40%
West Palm Beach, FL	63.3	80%	3.10%	30	972	12.00%	17.40%
Fresno, CA	60.6	85%	4.70%	37	2,719	2.90%	17.90%
Raleigh, NC	60.4	83%	8.90%	42	3,430	2.60%	17.50%
Oxnard, CA	59.8	79%	2.50%	28	323	3.30%	16.70%
Salt Lake City, UT	57.7				-3,020	2.00%	22.80%
Columbia, SC	56.9	90%	4.40%		2,296	3.20%
Providence, RI	56.6	85%	2.70%	44	3,664	3.90%	15.40%
Atlanta, GA	56.4	86%	9.90%	47	-4,229	2.20%	19.20%
Miami, FL	56.3	82%	2.90%	53	-5,120	5.90%	18.60%
Charlotte, NC	56.1	85%	10.10%		-6,444	2.70%	16.50%
Virginia Beach, VA	55.8	92%	3.20%	80	864	3.40%	8.30%
Tacoma, WA	55.5			9	-3,571	1.70%	19.80%
Detroit, MI	54.8	87%	5.20%	70	-2,062	1.00%	15.40%
Los Angeles, CA	54.8	79%	4.10%	46	-69,329	1.90%	17.30%
Austin, TX	54.6			16	-8,609	3.90%	31.60%
Portland, OR	54.3	82%	3.70%	14	-17,716	2.30%	15.40%
Anaheim, CA	53.9	76%	4.50%	20	-6,644	3.80%	16.00%
Denver, CO	53.8	82%	6.90%	7	-18,063	2.40%	16.70%
Colorado Springs, CO	53.7	87%	5.00%		693	2.50%
Baton Rouge, LA	52.4	89%	3.00%		2,287	2.40%	9.80%
Greenville, SC	52.1	85%	3.50%	32	1,771	4.70%	14.00%
Winston-Salem, NC	51.9	87%	5.10%			2.70%	13.70%
Grand Rapids, MI	51.7	86%	3.60%	29	1,028	2.40%	15.20%
Greensboro, NC	51.7	87%	6.70%	38	-181	2.10%	11.80%
Warren, MI	50.5	86%	2.90%	35	6,180	1.60%	11.40%
Tulsa, OK	50.1	88%	3.40%	45	2,325	2.10%	12.50%
Fort Lauderdale, FL	49.9	82%	3.00%	72	-5,121	7.50%	13.30%
Fort Worth, TX	49.6			50	1,978	1.70%	18.30%
Nashville, TN	49.3	84%	8.30%	48	-6,093	3.40%	17.00%
Allentown, PA	48.6	87%	2.20%	62	3,722	3.40%	14.20%
Camden, NJ	47.9	88%	3.00%	75	4,300	0.50%	17.90%
Houston, TX	47.7			24	-334	2.90%	15.50%
Seattle, WA	47.6	79%	1.90%	4	-37,365	1.80%	17.20%
Nassau County, NY	47.4	80%	3.60%	58	12,296	4.70%	15.20%
Albuquerque, NM	46.8				-1,714	2.80%
New Orleans, LA	46.6	88%	2.90%	23	-3,930	3.40%	10.70%
San Antonio, TX	46.6			40	-138	2.90%	15.10%
San Jose, CA	46.4	74%	2.50%	1	-22,661	0.80%	13.60%
San Francisco, CA	46.3	72%	1.90%	10	-55,918	2.40%	4.80%
Oakland, CA	45.8	78%	2.60%	3	-23,280	1.00%	16.30%
Dallas, TX	45.4			40	-5,685	1.70%	17.90%
Richmond, VA	45.4	87%	3.70%	59	1,995	1.40%	12.30%
Oklahoma City, OK	45.3	88%	5.10%	52	476	1.70%	10.60%
Washington, D.C.	44.2	87%	2.50%	28	-35,800	1.50%	10.10%
New Haven, CT	44.1	87%	2.00%	82	4,492	1.90%	15.80%
Birmingham, AL	43.4	88%	5.90%	68	95	1.40%	8.40%
Little Rock, AR	43.1	89%	4.90%	43	472	1.80%	10.70%
Frederick, MD	42.9	84%	2.00%	25	-58	0.90%	11.70%
Memphis, TN	42.7	87%	7.50%	33	-535	1.20%	13.30%
Honolulu, HI	42.6	79%	0.50%	19		6.20%	7.80%
St. Louis, MO	42.2	86%	3.40%		-2,214	1.30%	10.10%
Baltimore, MD	41.9	86%	2.60%	74	6,085	1.40%	8.50%
Bridgeport, CT	41.7	81%	1.10%	88	8,871	2.00%	11.60%
Worcester, MA	40.8	86%	1.80%	57	3,354	1.20%	16.10%
Indianapolis, IN	39.9			41	902	1.40%	13.50%
Newark, NJ	39.3	84%	1.90%	73	7,348	2.80%	13.20%
Wichita, KS	39.3				-1,813	1.10%	12.50%
Lake County, IL	38.6	85%	1.80%	87	2,746	1.70%	14.40%
Louisville, KY	38.6	87%	4.80%	34	-378	1.20%	9.70%
Wilmington, DE	37.8	88%	2.80%	64	738	1.80%	11.30%
Hartford, CT	36.8	86%	1.70%	80	7,182	1.80%	12.00%
Minneapolis, MN	36.8	85%	3.70%	50	-10,673	1.30%	11.10%
Gary, IN	36.7				939	1.20%	9.70%
Pittsburgh, PA	36.4	87%	1.60%	76	-337	1.50%	12.70%
Elgin, IL	35.8	84%	1.10%	60	3,590	0.60%	11.50%
New York, NY	35.4	78%	1.70%	48	-2,01,570	2.80%	12.30%
Syracuse, NY	35.2	86%	2.20%		1,510	3.30%	11.00%
Milwaukee, WI	35.1	86%	3.30%	79	-2,993	1.40%	7.20%
Omaha, NE	35.1	87%	4.90%	56	-237	1.30%	9.70%
Albany, NY	34.5	87%	2.00%	90	3,521	2.80%	13.70%
Chicago, IL	34.4	86%	1.80%	70	-32,998	1.30%	11.70%
Columbus, OH	34.2	85%	3.40%	61	2,507	1.40%	13.50%
Rochester, NY	34	85%	2.00%	86	1,330	3.20%	12.60%
Kansas City, MO	33.4				-1,491	1.30%	10.90%
Buffalo, NY	33.1	86%	2.60%	78	1,877	1.40%	17.00%
Boston, MA	32.6	79%	1.20%	63	-23,964	2.80%	12.20%
Cincinnati, OH	32.6	87%	3.90%	84	-360	1.30%	13.90%
Cleveland, OH	32.4	86%	2.50%	71	225	1.20%	9.50%
El Paso, TX	32.2			89	-24	1.80%	13.90%
Montgomery County, PA	31.4	83%	1.80%	66	6,685	0.80%	11.00%
Philadelphia, PA	30.4	86%	2.00%	64	-15,721	1.40%	10.10%
Akron, OH	29.6	87%	2.70%	83	2,029	1.20%	7.90%

Source: https://www.redfin.com/news/metros-recession-risk-housing-downturn-2022/

Where's Housing Headed? Follow Rents

February 17, 2010 by Marco Santarelli

It may not be the most widespread measure of housing prices, but if you want to follow a powerful driver, look at rents.

Specifically, it's the rents Americans pay on condos, apartments or houses that are about the same size, and share the same neighborhood as your ranch or colonial, that in the end determine what your house is worth.

"If you look at the trend in rents to see where housing prices are headed, you're looking at the right measure," says Yale economist Robert Shiller.

In recent reports, Deutsche Bank demonstrates how steady or even falling rents have pulled down housing prices, to the point where in many markets it costs about the same amount to own as to lease. That's a golden mean that America hasn't seen in almost a decade. The DB research also offers convincing evidence that the wrenching adjustment in housing prices is finished for much of the nation, with a bit more pain to come in selected areas.

Before we get to the numbers, let's examine why rents exercise a kind of gravitational pull over home prices.

[Read more…]