Rochester Housing Market: Prices and Forecast 2025-2026

Are you thinking about buying or selling a home in Rochester, NY? If so, you're probably wondering about the current Rochester housing market trends. Well, here's the bottom line: as of January 2025, the market is somewhat competitive with rising home prices. The median sale price in Rochester reached $155,000, a significant 19.2% increase compared to last year. But let's dive deeper into what's driving these changes and what it means for you.

I've been following the Rochester real estate scene for years, and I've seen firsthand how things can shift. So, let's break down the latest data and explore the factors influencing the market.

Current Rochester Housing Market Trends:

Home Sales

Home sales are a key indicator of market activity. According to Redfin, while prices are up, the number of homes sold in Rochester during January 2025 actually saw a slight decrease.

• January 2025: 132 homes sold
• Previous Year: 149 homes sold
• Year-over-Year Change: -11.4%

This decrease in sales could be due to a few factors, including higher mortgage rates or a limited number of homes available on the market. It's important to look at this in conjunction with other data to get a full picture.

Home Prices

As mentioned earlier, home prices in Rochester have been on the rise. This is great news for sellers, but can be challenging for buyers.

• Median Sale Price (January 2025): $155,000
• Year-over-Year Change: +19.2%
• Median Sale Price Per Square Foot: $95 (+23.4% year-over-year)

The significant increase in median sale price and price per square foot suggests that demand is outpacing supply. Buyers are willing to pay more to secure a property.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While there's no guarantee about the future, the current data doesn't suggest that home prices in Rochester are dropping. The year-over-year increase clearly indicates an upward trend. However, the market can change quickly, so it's crucial to stay informed and work with a knowledgeable real estate professional who can provide up-to-date insights. A drop in home prices will only occur when demand reduces with respect to supply.

Comparison with Current National Median Price

It's always useful to compare local trends with the national picture. As of December 2024, the national median home price was $407,500, with a +6% year-over-year change.

This comparison highlights that Rochester remains significantly more affordable than the national average. The median sale price in Rochester is roughly 63% lower than the national median. This affordability can be a major draw for people relocating to the area.

Housing Supply

The number of homes available for sale is a critical factor influencing market dynamics.

• I wasn't able to ascertain the exact number of homes listed for sale specifically.
• Homes sell in around 16 days on the market compared to 12 days last year.

The rapid sales pace implies low supply, contributing to the competitive environment.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

Based on the data, Rochester is currently leaning towards a seller's market. Here's why:

• Rising Prices: Sellers are getting higher prices for their homes.
• Fast Sales: Homes are selling relatively quickly.
• Competition: Multiple offers on properties suggest high demand.

A seller's market means that sellers have the upper hand, as there are more buyers than available properties. Buyers may need to be prepared to make competitive offers.

Market Trends

Let's take a look at some of the key trends shaping the Rochester housing market:

• Homes Receiving Multiple Offers: Homes in Rochester receive an average of 7 offers.
• Homes Selling Above List Price: 64.4% of homes sold above list price in January 2025, a +4.0 percentage point increase year-over-year.
• Sale-to-List Price Ratio: The average homes sell for about 8% above list price.
• Homes with Price Drops: 20.9% of homes had price drops, a +1.3 percentage point increase year-over-year.

These trends show a market with strong demand and a willingness among buyers to pay above asking price. However, the rising number of homes with price drops suggests some properties may be overpriced or not meeting buyer expectations.

Here's a table summarizing the key Rochester Housing Market Trends:

Metric	January 2025	Year-over-Year Change
Median Sale Price	$155,000	+19.2%
Homes Sold	132	-11.4%
Days on Market	16	+4
Sale-to-List Price Ratio	108.2%	+1.0 pt
Homes Sold Above List	64.4%	+4.0 pt
Homes with Price Drops	20.9%	+1.3 pt

Impact of High Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates play a significant role in housing affordability. As of February 2025, mortgage rates are currently hovering around 7%.

Higher mortgage rates increase the overall cost of buying a home, which can dampen buyer demand and put downward pressure on prices. However, despite these rates, the Rochester market has remained relatively strong, suggesting that other factors, such as affordability compared to other regions, are also at play.

Migration and Relocation Trends

It's important to see where people are moving in and out of the city. This will also impact current Rochester housing market trends.

• From Nov '24 – Jan '25, 30% of Rochester homebuyers searched to move out of Rochester, while 70% looked to stay within the metropolitan area.
• Buffalo was the most popular destination among Rochester homebuyers followed by Sarasota and Oklahoma City.
• New York homebuyers searched to move into Rochester more than any other metro followed by Dallas and Washington.

Rochester Housing Market Forecast: What to Expect in 2025 and Beyond

You're probably wondering what the future holds for the local real estate scene. Based on the latest forecasts, the Rochester housing market is expected to see moderate growth in home values throughout 2025. Zillow predicts a 5.9% increase in home values by the end of December 2025. That's a solid climb, but let's dive deeper and see what's driving this and how it stacks up against other New York markets.

Breaking Down the 2025 Rochester Housing Market Predictions

Zillow's data gives us a peek into how the Rochester housing market is expected to perform at different points in 2025. Here’s a clearer look at their MSA Forecast :

Forecast Period	Predicted Home Value Change
January 31, 2025	0.5%
Quarter Ending March 31, 2025	1.8%
Year Ending December 31, 2025	5.9%

This shows that the growth is predicted to be consistent throughout the year, though not dramatic, indicating a stable, healthy market.

Rochester vs. The Rest of New York: How Does It Compare?

So, how does Rochester's housing market forecast compare to other major metropolitan areas across New York State? Let's take a look at Zillow's predictions for these regions:

Region	Predicted Home Value Growth by Dec 2025
Rochester	5.9%
New York City	1.6%
Buffalo	4.3%
Albany	2.9%
Syracuse	6%
Utica	5.3%
Binghamton	4.8%
Kingston	6.6%
Jamestown	6%

As we can see, Rochester's projected growth is quite strong, especially when compared to a giant like New York City. While not leading the pack, it comfortably sits among the top performers alongside Syracuse, Jamestown and Kingston. This points towards robust local economic factors and perhaps a growing appeal to people seeking affordable alternatives to larger cities.

Will Home Prices Drop or Crash in Rochester?

Given the upward trend forecast for 2025, a significant drop or crash seems unlikely. While I always advise caution and monitoring market conditions, the steady growth suggests a stable demand and a balanced market, especially in the context of lower mortgage rates which are predicted to come soon. No one has a crystal ball but the data paints a pretty rosy picture for homeowners.

Looking Ahead: Potential 2026 Projections

Predicting beyond 2025 requires some speculation, but based on the current trends, I anticipate the Rochester housing market to continue on a moderate growth trajectory into 2026. Several factors will influence this, including:

• Interest Rates: Any fluctuations in mortgage rates will directly impact affordability and demand.
• Economic Growth: Rochester's local economy and job market play a crucial role in attracting new residents and boosting housing demand.
• Inventory Levels: The supply of homes for sale will also be a key factor. An increase in inventory could slow down price growth.

My Takeaway

As someone deeply familiar with the region, my personal opinion is that the Rochester housing market offers a solid opportunity for both buyers and sellers. The predicted growth indicates a good investment environment, but it's crucial to make informed decisions based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Always consult with a real estate professional to navigate the complexities of the market.

Should You Invest in the Rochester Real Estate Market?

Now that you know where Rochester is, you probably want to know why we’re recommending it to real estate investors. Investing in real estate is touted as a great way to become wealthy. Is Rochester a good place to invest in real estate?

Market Overview

The Rochester real estate market has garnered attention for its competitive nature and steady growth. However, before diving in, it's crucial to understand the current landscape:

• Steady Growth: Rochester has experienced steady growth in home prices over recent years. This growth can be attributed to factors such as a strong local economy, a desirable quality of life, and a diverse range of industries.
• Competitive Market: The market's competitiveness is evident from the high percentage of homes sold above their list price and the quick pace of sales. Multiple offers and bidding wars are common in sought-after neighborhoods.

Factors to Consider

When assessing whether to invest in the Rochester real estate market, consider the following factors:

• Local Economy: A strong and diverse local economy can contribute to housing demand and price appreciation. Research the major industries in Rochester and their growth prospects.
• Rental Demand: If you're considering rental properties, evaluate the demand for rentals in the area. Rochester's educational institutions and various industries attract a consistent pool of renters.
• Neighborhood Analysis: Different neighborhoods within Rochester may have varying growth potentials. Research the historical price trends and growth prospects of the neighborhoods you're interested in.
• Property Management: If you're investing in rental properties, factor in property management considerations. Will you manage the property yourself or hire a management company? Property management can impact your investment's success.

Pros of Investing in the Rochester Real Estate Market

• Steady Appreciation: Rochester's steady growth in home prices suggests the potential for long-term appreciation, which can be a lucrative investment strategy.
• Diverse Economy: The city's diverse economy, including healthcare, technology, and education, can contribute to a stable job market and housing demand.
• Educational Institutions: With renowned educational institutions like the University of Rochester and Rochester Institute of Technology, there's a consistent influx of students and academics seeking housing.

Cons of Investing in the Rochester Real Estate Market

• Market Competition: The competitive nature of the market can lead to higher purchase prices and potential bidding wars, impacting your investment's initial costs.
• Economic Volatility: While Rochester's economy is diverse, it's essential to consider economic factors that may influence demand for housing, especially during economic downturns.
• Property Management Challenges: Managing rental properties can come with challenges, including tenant turnover, maintenance, and regulatory compliance.