Mortgage Rates Predictions This Week: September 28 to October 4

This week, from September 28 to October 4, 2025, the mortgage rate outlook suggests a period of relative calm, with the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan likely hovering around the 6.3% to 6.4% mark. While we might see minor ups and downs, significant drops or spikes are not anticipated unless major economic news shakes things up, particularly the jobs report due out on Friday. It’s important to know that while rates have eased a bit recently, persistent inflation means they probably won't plummet any time soon, though a gradual downward trend could continue if economic signals soften.

Mortgage Rates Predictions This Week: September 28 to October 4

It’s that time of year again, where the leaves start to turn and our thoughts often drift towards homeownership or perhaps refinancing that existing mortgage. As we step into the final stretch of September and head into the first week of October, many of you are probably wondering what’s happening with mortgage rates. Will they continue their recent descent, or will they take a surprise turn? For the week of September 28 to October 4, 2025, my best guess is that mortgage rates will remain pretty steady, giving you a bit of breathing room, but it's wise to stay informed about the factors that could cause them to shift.

A Snapshot of Today's Mortgage Rates

Before we dive into predictions, let’s get clear on where we stand right now. As of September 29, 2025, the national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage is sitting at roughly 6.35% interest. When you factor in fees, the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) is a bit higher at 6.42%. This is a slight bump up from where we were last week, as things often seem to settle a little after a period of movement.

Here’s a quick look at some other common loan types currently averaging out:

• 15-year fixed: This popular option for those looking to pay off their home faster is averaging 5.65% interest (5.75% APR).
• 30-year jumbo: For those with larger loan amounts, the average is 6.39% interest (6.43% APR).
• 30-year FHA: Designed for borrowers with lower credit scores or smaller down payments, this loan type averages 6.41% interest (6.47% APR).
• 30-year VA: A fantastic benefit for our veterans, the average rate is 6.45% interest (6.49% APR).

It’s really important to remember that these are national averages. Your actual rate could be a bit higher or lower depending on your personal financial situation – your credit score, how much you plan to put down, and the specific lender you choose all play a big role.

Sizing Up the Week Ahead: September 28–October 4, 2025

Looking ahead at the week of September 28 to October 4, the general consensus among many analysts, including myself, is that we’ll see a continuation of the current trend: relative stability. For most of the week, don't expect drastic changes. The real potential for movement seems to be concentrated around Friday, October 3, with the release of the key Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Why is this report so important? Well, it’s a major indicator of the health of our job market.

• If the jobs report shows weaker-than-expected job growth (meaning fewer new jobs were created than economists predicted), this often signals that the economy might be slowing down a bit. In this scenario, investors tend to move their money into safer assets like Treasury bonds, which typically pushes mortgage rates down. We could see a dip of 0.1% to 0.2%.
• Conversely, if the report shows robust job growth, it suggests the economy is strong. This can lead investors to believe inflation might pick up or that the Federal Reserve might hold off on further interest rate cuts, potentially causing mortgage rates to rise by 0.1% to 0.2%.

Beyond that Friday report, I’m not seeing any other massive economic events scheduled that would likely cause big swings. So, for most of us watching the market, the early part of the week should feel pretty predictable.

What’s Driving These Rate Movements?

It’s easy to look at a number and say, “that's the mortgage rate!” But what actually makes that number go up or down? It's a complex mix of factors, but I'll break down the most impactful ones for you:

• Treasury Yields: Think of the 10-year Treasury note as the general barometer for mortgage rates. Right now, it's hovering around 4.1%. When the yield on these notes goes up, mortgage rates tend to follow, and vice versa. This is because mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which are essentially bonds made up of mortgages, compete for investor dollars with Treasury bonds.
• Federal Reserve Policy: While the Fed doesn’t directly set your mortgage rate, their actions with the federal funds rate have a huge ripple effect. They recently made a cut on September 17th, and the market is widely expecting more cuts later this year. Each cut generally aims to make borrowing cheaper across the economy, which should translate to lower mortgage rates. However, as we've seen, the connection isn't always immediate.
• Inflation: This is the big one that’s been keeping everyone on their toes. The Fed has a target inflation rate of around 2%. When inflation is higher than that, it makes borrowing money more expensive, pushing rates up. Even though the Fed has been cutting rates, persistent inflation pressures mean rates aren't as low as they could be.
• Economic Data: Beyond the jobs report, other economic indicators like consumer spending, manufacturing activity, and inflation reports (like the Consumer Price Index) all provide clues about the economy's health. Stronger data can lead to higher rates, while weaker data can lead to lower rates.

From my experience, it’s this push and pull between the Fed’s actions aimed at cooling inflation and the actual inflation numbers that creates a lot of the short-term volatility we see in mortgage rates.

A Look Back: How We Got Here in 2025

To understand where we might go, it’s helpful to see where we’ve been. The year 2025 has been quite a ride for mortgage rates.

• We started the year closer to 7.04%, as inflation concerns were pretty high.
• By March, we saw some easing, settling into the mid-6% range.
• Summer months (May-July) were a bit flatter, hovering in the 6.7%–6.9% band.
• Then, in late August and September, we witnessed a more significant downward trend, with rates dipping as low as 6.26% by September 18th, before a slight rebound.

This journey really highlights how sensitive mortgage rates are to economic news and central bank policy. The recent Fed rate cuts have certainly helped bring rates down from their highs, but the economy’s resilience has prevented them from falling as much as some might have hoped.

Expert Whispers: What the Pros Are Saying

I always like to see what other seasoned professionals are predicting. It’s good to get a few different perspectives.

• Greg McBride from Bankrate anticipates rates will “bounce around” before settling closer to 6.5% by the end of 2025.
• Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association are also projecting rates around 6.5%–6.6% for the year-end.
• NerdWallet has suggested that with continued Fed cuts, we could even see some rates dip below 6%, which would be fantastic news for many potential buyers.

The general sentiment is cautiously optimistic. While widespread, dramatic drops might not be on the immediate horizon, the overall forecast points towards a gradual easing of rates. However, as noted, the stubbornness of inflation and the unpredictability of the jobs market are the wild cards.

What Does This Mean for You?

So, what's my advice for you, whether you're looking to buy a home or refinance?

1. For Homebuyers: Current rates mean your monthly mortgage payment will be higher than it might have been a couple of years ago. For example, a $400,000 loan at 6.35% requires a monthly payment of around $2,490, compared to about $2,200 at 5%. However, the fact that rates have come down from their peak is improving affordability for some. If you're a first-time buyer, explore FHA or VA loans which can offer lower entry barriers.
2. For Refinancers: If you were lucky enough to lock in a rate below 4% a few years back, refinancing now probably doesn't make a lot of sense. This phenomenon, sometimes called the “lock-in effect,” is keeping a lot of homeowners from moving or refinancing. If you're in this camp, it might be best to wait and see if rates dip further.
3. Shop Around! This is my golden rule. Never take the first rate you're offered. Different lenders offer different rates and fees. Even a small difference of 0.25% can save you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan. Use online tools, get pre-approved by multiple banks and credit unions.
4. Improve Your Credit: If your credit score isn't stellar, focus on improving it. Paying down debt, paying bills on time, and checking for errors on your credit report can all make a difference. A higher score means access to better rates.
5. Consider Locking Your Rate: If you're purchasing a home soon and find a rate you're comfortable with, especially if you foresee rates potentially ticking up after the jobs report, consider locking it in. This protects you from any adverse market movements before you close.

The Bigger Picture: Housing Market and the Economy

Beyond just rates, it's worth remembering that the housing market is influenced by a lot of other things. Home prices, for instance, have continued to rise year-over-year by about 4.5% as of October 2024. However, many experts predict this pace will slow down in 2025 as more homes become available. Affordability remains a challenge for many, and some analysts are describing the market as a bit “stuck” because of this.

The overall economic picture, with inflation showing signs of cooling but still above target, and the job market remaining surprisingly strong, creates a bit of a balancing act for the Federal Reserve. This is why we’re seeing rates stabilize rather than plummet; the Fed wants to ensure inflation is truly under control before making any aggressive moves.

Final Thoughts for the Week

As we navigate the week of September 28 to October 4, 2025, my takeaway is this: expect relative stability, with Friday’s jobs report being the main potential disruptor. While a dramatic drop in rates is unlikely, the overall trend remains cautiously optimistic, leaning towards further easing in the coming months, contingent on inflation and economic data cooperating.

My best advice is to stay informed, do your homework, and be prepared to act if the right opportunity arises. Use the resources available to you, like mortgage calculators and rate comparison tools, to make the most informed decision for your financial future.