Is the Housing Market Shifting Towards Buyers in November 2024?

Thinking about buying or selling a house? It's really important to know what's happening in the housing market right now to make smart choices. Things are starting to change in the housing market. We're seeing a move away from the super-hot seller's market we've had for a while. The market is slowing down and becoming more balanced.

This means things are different for both buyers and sellers compared to the crazy buying times we've had recently. It's not as hectic anymore.

Housing Trends November 2024: Buyer or Seller's Market?

Home Sales

In recent weeks, we've witnessed a slowing down in the overall pace of home sales. This can be attributed to a few factors:

• Increased Mortgage Rates: The slight decrease in the 30-year mortgage rate in November 2024 offered some relief, but it's still a far cry from the historically low rates we've seen before. The post-election economic uncertainty and potential shifts in monetary policy have made buyers cautious about committing to higher borrowing costs.
• Buyer Hesitation: With higher borrowing costs and a sense of economic uncertainty, many potential buyers are holding back and waiting for the market to stabilize or for interest rates to drop further.
• Seller Hesitation: Some sellers, especially those locked in with lower mortgage rates, are hesitant to sell and take on a higher mortgage themselves.

While the number of new listings has increased slightly compared to last year, the growth rate has slowed down. This means that although more homes are coming onto the market, it's not as rapid as it was before. Buyers might still face limited choices, particularly in certain areas, leading to greater competition for well-priced homes.

From my perspective, the decrease in the pace of sales could be a sign of a more sustainable market. It provides a healthier balance for both buyers and sellers, away from the frantic pace we've seen over the past couple of years. This slower pace gives buyers more time to make decisions and negotiate prices, while sellers need to be more strategic with pricing to attract the right buyer.

Home Prices

According to Realtor.com's latest weekly national trends report, the median listing price has been declining for several weeks in a row. While the decline is not dramatic, it signifies a shift in the market compared to the steady price increases we saw throughout 2023 and the early part of 2024.

Data Summary	Year-to-Date 2024	Week Ending Nov 2, 2024	Week Ending Nov 9, 2024	Week Ending Nov 16, 2024
Median Listing Prices (Year-over-year)	-0.3%	-0.7%	-0.2%	-0.7%
New Listings (Year-over-year)	7.1%	4.6%	1.7%	3.5%
Active Listings (Year-over-year)	28.3%	26.6%	26.1%	25.9%
Time on Market	3 days slower	8 days slower	9 days slower	10 days slower

Are Home Prices Dropping?

Yes, the median listing price has been dropping for several weeks in a row. However, it's important to remember that the decline is relatively small and prices are still above what they were a year ago. It's also important to note that in some areas, prices might be increasing or remain stable. So, the trend is not uniform across the country.

The change in the mix of homes for sale towards smaller, more affordable homes has slightly increased the median listing price per square foot. This indicates that while the overall price might be decreasing, the prices per square foot are seeing a modest rise.

Housing Supply

The number of homes for sale has been increasing for over a year now, but the rate of increase has been slowing down. This is consistent with the slowdown we're seeing in other areas of the housing market.

• Active Inventory: For 54 straight weeks, the number of active listings has been higher than the same time last year. However, the rate of increase has been decelerating for eight consecutive weeks.
• New Listings: While new listings have seen a slight increase year-over-year, it's not enough to offset the slowing buyer demand. The rise in mortgage rates could be discouraging sellers who might have been hesitant to give up their low-interest mortgages.

Market Trends

The housing market trends we're witnessing reflect a more balanced and cautious approach.

• Slower Pace: The market has slowed compared to the fast-paced frenzy of the past couple of years. This is apparent in the slowing of home sales, and a longer time for homes to stay on the market.
• More Inventory: While inventory is still relatively low compared to historical averages, it's significantly higher than it was last year. This suggests a more balanced market, giving buyers more choices.
• Cautious Buyers: Buyers are more cautious than before due to higher interest rates and economic uncertainty. This means they are taking their time to find the right house at the right price.
• Thoughtful Pricing: Sellers need to be more thoughtful about their pricing strategies. In a more balanced market, overpriced homes might sit on the market for longer.

I think these trends are positive for the long-term health of the housing market. The feverish pace of the past few years wasn't sustainable. The current moderation is allowing buyers and sellers to make more considered decisions and helps create a more stable market.

Is It a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

The housing market is shifting towards a more balanced state. It's no longer the seller's market we saw in recent years, but it's not quite a buyer's market either. It's a more balanced market than we have seen in years.

For Buyers:

• More Choices: You have more options and less pressure to make hasty decisions.
• More Negotiation Power: You may have more leverage to negotiate on price and other terms.
• Opportunity to Secure a Good Deal: If you're a motivated buyer, you might find some good deals, especially in areas with more inventory.
• Longer Search: It may take longer to find the perfect home due to fewer homes and slower sales.

For Sellers:

• Importance of Pricing: Pricing your home competitively is crucial to attracting buyers.
• More Deliberate Market: You'll likely need to spend more time on the market compared to the past few years.
• Importance of Presentation: Making your home stand out from the competition is important.
• Potential for Slower Sales: Be prepared to potentially have your home on the market for a longer period.

My recommendation to sellers is to focus on making your home as attractive as possible and be ready to be flexible on negotiations. To buyers, I'd say take your time, do your research, and be prepared to negotiate.

Are Home Prices Dropping?

Home prices are indeed showing a slight downward trend, with the median listing price decreasing for several weeks. While the decline is not drastic, it indicates that the upward trend we've experienced for so long has slowed down. This is mainly due to the increased mortgage rates and the cautious approach by buyers.

What Lies Ahead for the U.S. Housing Market?

Predicting the future of the housing market is always challenging. However, several factors will likely influence its direction in the coming months:

• Mortgage Rates: The trajectory of mortgage rates will be the key determinant of the housing market's direction. If rates continue to rise, it will likely further cool the market. A decline in interest rates would likely bring more buyers into the market and increase demand.
• Economic Conditions: Overall economic health will also play a role. A recession could lead to a further slowdown in the housing market and potential price corrections.
• Inflation and Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's actions on inflation and monetary policy will impact interest rates. If inflation remains elevated, we might not see a significant change in the direction of mortgage rates.

I believe the housing market will continue to experience a more balanced and stable period compared to the recent past. It's likely to be a period of adjustment and moderation in both buying and selling activity.

In a Nutshell

Things are changing in the housing market! We're moving away from the super-hot seller's market we've seen lately and heading towards a more even playing field for buyers and sellers.

Signs of this shift include homes selling a little slower, prices leveling off a bit, and more homes becoming available. Both buyers and sellers need to adapt to this new situation.

Buyers now have more options and can possibly negotiate better deals. Sellers, on the other hand, need to be smart about how they price their homes and how they show them off.

What happens in the future depends on things like interest rates on mortgages, the overall economy, and what the Federal Reserve does. It's a time of big changes in the housing market, which can be interesting and exciting – as long as you know what's going on.