Gilbert Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

Located within the Phoenix Metro Area, Gilbert, Arizona offers a dynamic housing market that attracts homebuyers for its strong appeal. Similar to Scottsdale, Gilbert boasts a flourishing job market, fueling its residential growth. This has led to a competitive market with rising home values.

In the Gilbert housing market, homes sell for a median price of $580K, representing a 2.7% increase year-over-year. However, the market shows signs of slowing down compared to previous years, with homes spending slightly longer on the market. Let's dive into the specifics to help you navigate this dynamic market.

Gilbert Housing Market Trends in 2024

Home Sales

In October 2024, the number of homes sold in Gilbert was 242, a slight increase of 3.4% compared to the same period last year, according to Redfin. While this signifies a modest growth in sales activity, it's important to note that the pace of sales has slowed down compared to the previous year. This trend might indicate that the once red-hot Gilbert housing market is beginning to cool down, which is something I've observed over the past few months while working with clients.

The average number of days a home spends on the market in Gilbert is currently 47 days, up from 35 days last year. This increase in days on market shows that buyers have more time to consider their options and make informed decisions, which may lead to more negotiations and less bidding wars. While this extended time on the market might sound alarming, in my opinion, it is a positive development for buyers as it creates a more balanced market.

Home Prices

The median sale price of a home in Gilbert was $580,000 in October 2024, representing a 2.7% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This upward trend in home prices has been consistent in recent years, driven by factors such as population growth, limited housing inventory, and low-interest rates. However, the rate of increase is moderating as the market matures.

The median sale price per square foot in Gilbert is $289, up 3.4% year-over-year. This metric gives us a sense of the price appreciation per unit area, allowing us to understand the value proposition in different neighborhoods within Gilbert.

Housing Supply

The current housing supply in Gilbert is a key factor influencing the market. While specific figures on inventory may not be readily available, the increasing days on market and slowing sales growth might indicate a slightly increased supply compared to the previous year.

Based on my interactions with local real estate agents and developers, I've noticed that there's been an uptick in new construction projects in Gilbert, which could lead to a more balanced supply and demand scenario in the coming months. This potential increase in supply can be positive for buyers, leading to more choices and potentially less upward pressure on prices.

Market Trends

The Gilbert housing market trends in 2024 show a subtle shift from the rapid growth we saw in previous years. The market is becoming more balanced, with a slight increase in days on the market and a moderate pace of price appreciation.

One of the key trends we see is a gradual cooling of the market. We're moving away from the frenzy of bidding wars and rapid sales we experienced during the peak of the market. This shift can be attributed to several factors:

• Rising interest rates: The Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation have led to higher mortgage rates, which has impacted buyer affordability and slowed down purchase activity.
• Economic uncertainty: Global economic conditions have created a sense of uncertainty among potential buyers, leading to a more cautious approach to real estate purchases.
• Increased housing supply: As mentioned earlier, a potential increase in new construction projects might be starting to have an impact on the overall housing inventory, providing buyers with more options.

These trends are expected to continue in 2024, though the extent of their influence remains to be seen.

Is Gilbert a Buyer's or Seller's Housing Market?

The Gilbert housing market in 2024 is shifting towards a more balanced state. While it's not a buyer's market in the traditional sense, buyers now have more leverage than they did in the previous couple of years. They have more time to consider their options, negotiate prices, and potentially secure better deals.

Sellers still have a strong position in the market, but they need to be more realistic with their pricing expectations. Buyers are less likely to engage in bidding wars and are more likely to walk away if the price isn't attractive.

Here's a summary of the situation:

Factor	Buyer's Perspective	Seller's Perspective
Negotiation Power	Increased	Decreased
Days on Market	Longer	Longer
Price Appreciation	Moderate	Moderate
Competition	Reduced	Reduced
Overall Outlook	Favorable, but still requires careful consideration	Requires competitive pricing & strategic approach

Are Home Prices Dropping?

While we are seeing a moderation in price growth, it's important to note that home prices in Gilbert are not currently dropping significantly. The median sale price is still up compared to last year, although the rate of increase is slowing.

In my opinion, it's unlikely that we'll see a dramatic drop in home prices in Gilbert in the near future. The strong fundamentals of the Gilbert market, including a thriving economy, desirable amenities, and a high quality of life, will likely continue to support home values. However, buyers may be able to secure homes for slightly less than the asking price or negotiate favorable terms in the current market.

Sale-to-List Price and Homes Sold Above List Price

In October 2024, the average home in Gilbert sold for 98.0% of the list price, representing a decrease of 0.88 percentage points compared to last year. This data indicates that sellers are achieving prices very close to their initial asking prices, but there's a slight decline in the ability to get premium prices above asking.

The percentage of homes sold above list price is 11.6%, down 6.0 percentage points from last year. This statistic shows that bidding wars are less prevalent than they were in the previous year.

Homes with price drops are another area to pay attention to. In October 2024, 36.7% of homes in Gilbert had a price drop, which reflects an increase of 3.9 percentage points compared to the previous year. This could indicate that sellers are adjusting their pricing strategies in response to the cooling market and the changing buyer behavior.

Gilbert Migration and Relocation Trends

The migration data for Gilbert reveals interesting insights into the dynamics of the population. According to Redfin, in the period from August to October 2024, 30% of Gilbert homebuyers were looking to move out of Gilbert, while 70% were looking to stay within the metropolitan area.

Where are people moving to Gilbert from?

The data suggests that people are moving to Gilbert from various parts of the country, with Seattle being the top source metro, followed by Los Angeles and Dallas. This trend reflects the appeal of Gilbert's desirable lifestyle, strong job market, and family-friendly environment.

Where are people from Gilbert moving to?

Within the Gilbert metro area, the most popular destinations include Prescott Valley, Show Low, and Flagstaff. This suggests that some residents might be seeking a quieter, less urban lifestyle within the broader region.

This migration data provides a valuable perspective on the demographic shifts that are occurring within Gilbert. It's a reminder that the housing market is not just about buying and selling homes; it's also about the human stories and motivations behind those transactions.

Final Thoughts on Current Trends:

The Gilbert housing market is evolving, and 2024 is expected to continue this trend of a more balanced market. While home prices are still rising, the pace of appreciation is slowing down. The market is becoming more favorable for buyers who are willing to negotiate and carefully consider their options.

If you're considering buying a home in Gilbert, now might be a good time to explore the market and understand your options. If you're a seller, be prepared to be competitive with your pricing and work with a knowledgeable agent who understands the nuances of the current market. Now, let's discuss the predictions for this housing market.

Gilbert Housing Market Predictions 2024-2025

The Gilbert housing market forecast suggests a continued strong market, but with a slightly slower pace than recent years. The average home value in Gilbert currently sits at $577,650, showing a 2.5% increase over the last year (Zillow). Homes are generally going pending in about 23 days.

I've been following the Gilbert real estate scene for a while now and have noticed some interesting trends. While the market is still competitive, the frantic pace of the past couple of years has somewhat settled down.

The Gilbert housing market, like many others in the Phoenix metro area, has been a hot spot for buyers. This is due to several factors, including a robust economy, great schools, and a desirable lifestyle. However, as interest rates have gone up, the market has cooled slightly.

• Slower Pace of Growth: We're seeing a decrease in the rate of appreciation, which is a good sign for buyers. It indicates that the market is starting to balance out, potentially making it easier to negotiate a good deal.
• Increased Inventory: Though still not a huge surge, there is a bit more inventory for buyers to choose from compared to the last couple of years. While not a buyer's market yet, it's starting to shift towards a more balanced position.
• Competition Still Exists: Keep in mind that while the market is softening, it is still competitive. You'll need to be prepared to act quickly if you find a home that meets your needs.

Gilbert Housing Market Forecast for the Future

Looking ahead, I think the Gilbert housing market will continue to be a desirable area to live in. However, I anticipate that the rate of growth will remain moderate, and the market will continue to become more balanced between buyers and sellers.

In my opinion, the Gilbert housing market offers a stable and solid opportunity for homebuyers and sellers. I think that it's a good time to consider the Gilbert housing market if you are looking to buy or sell a home.

So, Should You Invest in the Gilbert Real Estate Market?

Gilbert, Arizona, presents a compelling case for real estate investment, supported by several factors that make it an attractive destination for prospective investors.

Favorable Economic Environment

Gilbert boasts a strong and diverse economy, driven by a mix of industries including healthcare, education, technology, and manufacturing. The stable economy creates a conducive environment for real estate investment, ensuring a consistent demand for housing and commercial spaces.

Gilbert, Arizona has seen significant economic growth over the past decade and has a long-term economic development plan that focuses on attracting, growing, and retaining businesses and industries.

The town's Office of Economic Development offers services such as site selection, workforce studies, and research. Gilbert also has several initiatives that support economic growth, including STEM workforce, Elevate Tech Sales Accelerator program, and GilbertTogether HUUB.

Population Growth and Demand

The city has been experiencing a steady population growth due to its quality of life, excellent schools, and employment opportunities. In 2022, Gilbert, AZ had a population of 267k people with a median age of 35.4 and a median household income of $115,179.

Between 2021 and 2022 the population of Gilbert, AZ grew from 262,249 to 267,267 (Datausa), a 1.91% increase and its median household income grew from $105,733 to $115,179, a 8.93% increase. A growing population typically indicates a rising demand for housing, which can lead to appreciation in property values, making it a promising area for real estate investment.

Quality of Life and Amenities

Gilbert is known for offering a high quality of life with safe neighborhoods, excellent schools, recreational facilities, and cultural attractions. These amenities make it an appealing location for families and professionals, enhancing the demand for residential properties.

Infrastructure Development

The city has made significant investments in infrastructure development, including transportation, utilities, and public services. These enhancements contribute to the overall appeal of the area, attracting potential investors and residents alike.

Stability in the Housing Market

While experiencing a modest decrease in home prices recently, Gilbert's housing market remains relatively stable and resilient. The competitive market, with homes selling quickly and a balanced median sale-to-list ratio, suggests a healthy real estate environment for both buyers and sellers.

Conclusion

Considering its robust economy, population growth, quality of life, infrastructure development, and stability in the housing market, Gilbert, Arizona, appears to be a promising location for real estate investment. However, like any investment decision, thorough research, careful assessment of market trends, and consultation with real estate professionals are essential to make an informed and successful investment.