California Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2024-2025

The housing market varies significantly from state to state. Knowing the specifics of your local market is essential for making informed decisions about renting, buying, or selling property. So, let's dive into the Golden State and see how its housing market fared last month.

California Housing Market Overview

We all know that California is the most expensive housing market in the country. Its reign as the most expensive housing market in the United States is a complex issue rooted in a confluence of factors that have built up over decades. While many point to the state's booming economy and desirable lifestyle, the reasons run far deeper.

A primary driver is the simple principle of supply and demand. California consistently ranks among the most populous states, attracting millions with its renowned climate, diverse culture, and ample job opportunities, particularly in high-paying sectors like technology and entertainment.

The state has more than 39 million residents as of 2022, constituting 11.7 percent of the U.S. population. This constant influx of new residents, coupled with a historically slow pace of housing construction, has created a significant imbalance, driving up prices as demand consistently outpaces supply.

This housing shortage is further exacerbated by stringent regulations and bureaucratic hurdles that make building new homes in California a costly and time-consuming endeavor. Zoning laws, environmental regulations, and lengthy permitting processes all contribute to delays and increased expenses for developers, costs which are ultimately passed on to buyers in the form of higher prices.

Beyond these fundamental factors, California's unique geography plays a role. Hemmed in by the Pacific Ocean to the west and mountain ranges to the east, the state faces natural limitations on its land available for development. This scarcity of buildable land, especially in desirable coastal areas, further intensifies competition and inflates prices.

Furthermore, California's robust economy, while attracting residents and driving up demand, also contributes to higher housing costs. High-paying industries and a thriving job market result in greater disposable income among residents, empowering them to afford more expensive homes and further fueling the upward pressure on prices.

This economic prosperity, while beneficial in many ways, unfortunately, creates a cycle where housing becomes increasingly inaccessible to those not earning top salaries.

Addressing California's housing crisis demands a multifaceted approach. Increasing supply through streamlined regulations and incentives for developers is crucial, as is exploring innovative housing solutions like increased density and more affordable housing options.

California Housing Market Trends in 2024

California's housing market is always at the forefront of everyone's minds. Will prices continue their upward climb? Are we in for a crash? The reality, as always, is more nuanced. To understand the California real estate market, it’s important to keep up with trends. Let’s look at some key ones to try to make sense of what's in store for 2024.

1. Home Sales in California

The California housing market saw a bit of a slowdown in September 2024. According to the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.), existing single-family home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 253,010. That's a slight dip of 3.4% from August and just a small 5.1% increase from September 2023.

While this suggests a slight cooling, it's important to note that year-to-date sales are actually up 0.9%, indicating consistent, though not explosive, activity. This isn't necessarily a cause for alarm; it's more like a natural market adjustment after a period of intense activity.

This fluctuation reflects the ongoing tug-of-war between buyer hesitation and improved inventory. Lower mortgage rates are tempting, but economic uncertainty is still making many potential buyers think twice. It's a tricky balancing act, and it's a classic example of how the California housing market can be influenced by national economic factors.

The interactive chart above offers a comprehensive visual summary of key real estate metrics in California for July 2023 and July 2024.  To explore different metrics in the chart, hover over the bars to see specific data points like home sales, median home prices, days on the market, sales-price-to-list-price ratio, and price per square foot. You can click on the category names in the rectangles above to strike through and temporarily remove that metric from the chart. This allows you to focus on the remaining metrics for a clearer comparison.

2. California Home Prices: Still Climbing, But Slowly

While home sales showed a slight dip, home prices are still on the rise, but at a slower pace. The statewide median home price in September was $868,150 – a 2.3% decrease from August but still a respectable 2.9% increase compared to September 2023. This points to a potential moderation in price growth, which is good news for buyers.

Remember, the “median” price represents the middle point in all the home sales; so, some prices are higher, and some are lower. It reflects a broad trend rather than an exact price for every house.

Month	Median Home Price ($)	Year-over-Year Change (%)
August 2024	$888,740	+3.4%
September 2024	$868,150	+2.9%

3. California Housing Supply: A Much-Needed Boost

The California housing market's biggest positive shift is a noticeable improvement in the housing supply. The Unsold Inventory Index (UII), a key indicator of market balance, climbed to 3.6 months in September, up from 3.2 months in August and 2.8 months in September 2023. This increase in supply reflects a substantial 36% year-over-year jump in total active listings. This is a significant change, signaling a healthier market and potentially a more favorable environment for buyers.

It seems that after years of limited inventory, California is finally seeing more homes on the market. This positive change is a long-awaited improvement. However, a word of caution: we need to continuously monitor this data. A small supply increase isn't a complete resolution. More homes need to be built and listed for sale.

4. Market Trends: A Closer Look at Regional Differences

The California housing market isn't uniform across the state. Regional variations are significant, and understanding these differences is critical for anyone involved in the market. Let's delve into some key insights:

• Regional Sales: Most regions outperformed their year-ago sales, with some exceptions like the Central Coast and Central Valley.
• Regional Prices: While the statewide median price rose, the San Francisco Bay Area actually saw a slight decline in median price year-over-year, showing the uneven nature of the market.
• County-Level Data: The data reveals huge variations across California counties. Some counties experienced dramatic sales increases, while others suffered significant drops. This emphasizes the localized nature of market trends, indicating you need to drill down to the specific area you are focusing on to have a clear understanding.

Table: Regional Performance in September 2024 (vs. September 2023)

Region	Sales Change (%)	Median Price Change (%)
Far North	+7.2%	-1.4%
San Francisco Bay	+5.1%	-2.6%
Southern California	+1.1%	+3.7%
Central Coast	-1.9%	+4.6%
Central Valley	-1.6%	+4.0%

Table: Top Performing and Underperforming Counties (September 2024)

Category	County	Change (%)
Highest Sales Growth	Lassen	+78.6%
Highest Price Growth	Lassen	+46.2%
Highest Sales Decline	Mono	-50.0%
Highest Price Decline	Mariposa	-25.4%

These tables highlight the significant variations in sales and price trends across regions and counties within California. What's happening in one part of the state might not reflect what's going on elsewhere. Therefore, it's very important to look at the details of your local area.

5. Property Tax Rates in the California

California's property tax landscape is unique, shaped by Proposition 13 and subsequent legislation. This system, while aiming to protect homeowners from volatile market fluctuations, can be complex to understand.

Let's break it down:

Firstly, California's property tax rate is capped at 1% of the assessed value of your property. This assessed value, however, is not necessarily the market value. When you buy a home in California, the purchase price becomes the initial assessed value. From then on, your assessed value can only increase by a maximum of 2% per year, regardless of how much your home's market value may rise. This 2% cap, thanks to Proposition 13, provides homeowners with a sense of predictability and protection from dramatic tax hikes.

However, this also means that homeowners who have lived in their homes for a long time might be paying significantly less in property taxes than newer homeowners with similar properties. This disparity in property tax burdens is a key point of discussion surrounding Proposition 13.

Beyond the 1% base rate, there are additional local taxes and bonds that are added to your property tax bill. These vary depending on your specific location and are used to fund local services like schools, parks, and libraries. Consequently, even though the base rate is fixed, your total property tax rate can fluctuate based on local needs and voter-approved initiatives.

6. Foreclosure Activity Across California – Midyear 2024

The recent data on foreclosure activity in California reveals significant challenges facing homeowners in the early part of 2024. With a total of 19,013 properties (ATTOM's Midyear 2024 Report) filing for foreclosure, the statistics indicate an ongoing struggle for many to keep up with mortgage payments, which can be attributed to various economic factors.

While this number reflects a serious situation, it represents only 0.13% of the overall housing units in the state. This relatively small percentage suggests that, although foreclosures are noteworthy, they are not yet overwhelming the larger housing market.

When examining the ratio of foreclosures to housing units, California sees approximately one foreclosure for every 759 housing units. This figure offers a glimpse into the current state of foreclosures within the broader context of the housing market, indicating that while a proportion of homeowners are facing significant difficulties, the majority are not currently affected.

However, the increase of 6.13% in foreclosure filings from January to June 2023 signals a troubling upward trend, suggesting that many homeowners may be experiencing economic distress. Furthermore, the substantial rise of 16.36% in foreclosure activity compared to the same period in 2022 underscores the persistent nature of these challenges, indicating that the factors contributing to increased foreclosures may be ongoing and multifaceted.

The implications of this increase in foreclosures are substantial, raising concerns about the overall economic health of households in California. Factors such as rising interest rates, shifts in the job market, and broader economic uncertainties could be putting additional strain on families, leading to difficulties in meeting mortgage obligations.

Overall, while the percentages and figures illustrate a concerning trend, they also highlight the critical need for intervention to protect vulnerable homeowners and sustain the housing market's vitality.

7. Interest Rates and Market Sentiment:

The fluctuating interest rates play a significant role. While the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was down in September 2024 compared to September 2023 (6.18% versus 7.20%), the market hasn't fully responded. Economic uncertainty and concerns about future rate hikes continue to influence buyer behavior. In my opinion, buyers are exercising caution and awaiting more clarity on the economic outlook.

California Housing Market: What to Expect in the Second Half of 2024

1. Mortgage Rates Will Play a Key Role

• The recent dip in interest rates has been a breath of fresh air for buyers.
• While no one can predict the future with certainty, most experts believe rates will remain relatively stable for the rest of the year, hovering around the 6-7% range.
• This could incentivize more buyers to enter the market, especially if prices continue to moderate.

2. Inventory Will (Slowly) Improve

• The increase in active and new listings is a positive sign.
• However, don't expect a sudden surge in inventory. California has a chronic undersupply of housing, and it will take time to bridge the gap.

3. Price Growth Will Continue, But at a Slower Pace

• Double-digit price appreciation is likely a thing of the past (for now, at least).
• Most analysts predict more sustainable, single-digit price growth for the remainder of 2024.
• Don't expect a crash – the fundamentals of the California economy remain strong, supporting continued demand for housing.

4. Regional Variations Will Persist

• As always, California's vastness means there's no one-size-fits-all trend.
• The Bay Area, with its robust tech sector, will likely continue to see strong demand, even with some cooling.
• Coastal communities, highly desirable for their lifestyle, will also remain competitive.

Factors Impacting the California Housing Market

Several factors have contributed to the challenges facing the California housing market. Here are some key factors that interact with each other, creating a complex and dynamic housing market in California.

1. High Demand and Limited Supply:

California has a high population density and strong economic growth, leading to a high demand for housing. However, there is a limited supply of available housing, particularly in desirable areas. This imbalance between supply and demand has driven up housing prices, making it difficult for many prospective buyers to afford homes.

2. Affordability Issues:

The high cost of housing in California has made homeownership less attainable for many residents. The median home price in the state is significantly higher than the national average. The combination of high home prices, rising interest rates, and stringent mortgage qualification rules has created affordability challenges for prospective buyers.

3. Strict Zoning and Land Use Regulations:

California has some of the most stringent zoning and land use regulations in the country. These regulations often restrict new construction and development, making it difficult to increase the housing supply to meet demand. This has resulted in a housing shortage and contributed to the rising prices.

4. Lack of Affordable Housing:

California faces a severe shortage of affordable housing, particularly in major cities. The cost of constructing affordable housing and the complex process of obtaining approvals and permits have hindered the development of affordable units. This has exacerbated the affordability crisis and led to a growing population of renters.

5. Economic Factors:

Economic conditions, such as job growth, wages, and interest rates, can significantly impact the housing market. Slowing economic growth or stagnant wages can dampen demand for housing, while rising interest rates can increase borrowing costs and dissuade potential buyers. These factors, in combination with high housing prices, have made it challenging for many Californians to enter the housing market.

6. Impact of Natural Disasters:

California is prone to natural disasters, including wildfires and earthquakes, which can damage or destroy homes and disrupt the housing market. Rebuilding efforts and insurance costs following these events can impact housing availability and affordability in affected areas.

7. Migration Patterns:

Migration patterns also play a role in the housing market. California has experienced both domestic and international migration, leading to increased demand for housing. However, in recent years, there has been a trend of net outmigration, with some residents leaving the state due to affordability concerns, congestion, and other factors. This can impact the supply and demand dynamics of the housing market.

California Housing Market Predictions 2024

California‘s housing market appears poised for a comeback in 2024, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) and their highly anticipated “2024 California Housing Market Forecast.” Let's delve into the key projections:

Positive Outlook: Sales and Prices

• The forecast predicts a substantial jump of 22.9% in existing single-family home sales compared to 2023.
• This translates to an estimated 327,100 units sold in 2024, a significant increase from the projected 266,200 units in 2023.
• California's median home price is anticipated to climb by 6.2% to $860,300 in 2024.

Driving Forces Behind the Rebound

• The forecast hinges on a decrease in mortgage rates due to slower economic growth and cooling inflation.
• This creates a more buyer-friendly environment, stimulating housing demand.
• While housing supply is expected to remain below typical levels, the slight increase in active listings could offer some relief.

Economic Factors and Market Dynamics

• The forecast considers economic indicators, including a modest 0.7% rise in the U.S. gross domestic product for 2024.
• California's nonfarm job growth rate is estimated at 0.5%, while the unemployment rate may see a slight increase to 5.0% in 2024.
• Despite potential economic softening, a persistent housing shortage and competitive market are predicted to maintain upward pressure on home prices.
• The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve Bank is expected to decrease mortgage rates throughout 2024, potentially giving buyers more financial flexibility.

Conclusion: Valuable Insights for All

The C.A.R.'s forecast paints a promising picture for the California housing market in 2024. However, it's important to remember that these are projections. As the year unfolds, actual market performance will provide a clearer picture of these predictions' accuracy. Regardless, this information offers valuable insights for both home buyers and sellers navigating the market in the coming year.

Should You Buy a House in California in 2024?

California's sunshine and laid-back lifestyle lock in many a homebuyer's sights. But is it a smart investment right now? Let's crunch the numbers and explore the current California housing market to help you decide if this is the golden moment to make your move.

Market on the Move: Boom or Bust?

California's housing market has a well-deserved reputation for soaring prices. The past decade has seen impressive appreciation, with some areas experiencing double-digit growth. However, the recent quarters have shown a shift. The breakneck pace has cooled, with some regions even experiencing slight dips. This could be a sign of a long-awaited correction or simply a temporary adjustment.

Numbers to Know: Crunch Time

So, what do the numbers tell us? Here's a reality check: while the recent price hikes may have eased, California homes are still expensive. The statewide median price recently hit a record high of over $900,000. Couple that with rising interest rates, and monthly mortgage payments can feel like a hefty weight on your wallet.

Beyond the Numbers: Considering Your Needs

The decision to buy a house in California goes beyond cold, hard numbers. It's about your long-term goals and financial health. Here are some key questions to ask yourself:

• Are you in it for the long haul? California real estate has historically been a good long-term investment. If you plan to stay put for at least five to seven years, you'll weather any market fluctuations and likely see your home value appreciate.
• Can you handle the upfront costs? Don't forget about the down payment, closing costs, and potential repairs. Having a healthy financial buffer will ease the initial strain.
• Is your job stable? Job security is crucial, especially in a state with a higher cost of living.

A Competitive Market: Be Prepared

California's housing market is competitive, especially in desirable locations. Inventory remains tight, so be prepared to act fast and make competitive offers. Having a strong pre-approval from a reputable lender will put you ahead of the pack.

The California housing market has its complexities. Teaming up with a qualified real estate agent who understands the local market nuances is wise. They can guide you through the process, negotiate on your behalf, and help you find the perfect place that fits your budget and lifestyle.

The Verdict: It Depends

There's no one-size-fits-all answer to the California housing question. If you've done your research, understand the market conditions, and are financially prepared, buying a house in California could be a great decision. But remember, it's a significant investment, and it's wise to approach it with both eyes open.