12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026

Get ready for a possible shift in the real estate world! Zillow predicts that several housing markets are predicted to decline in double digits by March 2026. Specifically, certain regions in Mississippi, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, and South Carolina are facing potential price drops of over 10%. This news might sound alarming, but let's break down what this forecast means for you, whether you're a homeowner, potential buyer, or just curious about the market.

Have you ever felt like trying to predict the housing market is like trying to predict the weather? One minute it's sunny, the next there's a downpour. Well, recently, the forecast seems to be hinting at some storm clouds gathering over certain areas. As someone who keeps a close eye on these trends, I want to dive deep into Zillow's prediction and explore what might be causing this anticipated dip, and most importantly, what it means for you.

12 Housing Markets Set for Double-Digit Price Decline by Early 2026

For a long time, the narrative surrounding the housing market has been one of rising prices and fierce competition. But Zillow's latest report suggests a potential correction. According to their data, U.S. home prices are expected to fall by 1.7% between March 2025 and March 2026. That might not sound like much nationally, but the devil is in the details.

Here’s a quick look at how Zillow’s outlook has shifted in recent months:

• January: +2.9%
• February: +1.1%
• March: +0.8%
• Now: -1.7%

This consistent downward revision isn’t just a blip; it indicates a fundamental shift in their assessment of the market.

Where Will the Impact Be Felt the Most?

Now, let’s get to the areas predicted to experience the most significant declines. Zillow's forecast specifically highlights 12 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) that are expected to see double-digit percentage drops in home values by March 2026.

Here’s the list, based on Zillow’s data:

RegionName	RegionType	StateName	BaseDate	30-04-2025	30-06-2025	31-03-2026
Greenville, MS	msa	MS	31-03-2025	-0.9	-4.3	-14.6
Pecos, TX	msa	TX	31-03-2025	-0.4	-2.8	-12.7
Cleveland, MS	msa	MS	31-03-2025	-0.4	-3.2	-11.9
Big Spring, TX	msa	TX	31-03-2025	-0.5	-2.7	-11.4
Alice, TX	msa	TX	31-03-2025	-1.3	-3.8	-11.3
Raymondville, TX	msa	TX	31-03-2025	-1.2	-4.1	-11.2
Helena, AR	msa	AR	31-03-2025	-0.5	-2.8	-11
Sweetwater, TX	msa	TX	31-03-2025	-1.3	-3.5	-10.6
Hobbs, NM	msa	NM	31-03-2025	0	-1.3	-10.5
Opelousas, LA	msa	LA	31-03-2025	-0.7	-3	-10.3
Houma, LA	msa	LA	31-03-2025	-0.8	-3	-10.1
Bennettsville, SC	msa	SC	31-03-2025	-1.5	-3.7	-10

These are relatively smaller markets, and it's crucial to understand why they might be facing these potential declines. Geographic diversity plays a significant role in this analysis.

Why These Areas? Potential Contributing Factors

What factors could be driving these predicted declines? Several possibilities come to mind:

• Economic conditions: These areas may be experiencing slower economic growth, job losses, or industry downturns, impacting demand for housing.
• Population shifts: People might be moving away from these areas in search of better opportunities elsewhere.
• Housing affordability: Even if prices aren't skyrocketing like in major cities, affordability could still be a concern for local residents.
• Overbuilding: If there’s a surplus of new homes on the market, it can put downward pressure on prices.
• **Interest Rates: The elephant in the room! As rates rise, mortgages become more expensive, reducing demand, especially in areas where affordability is already strained.
• **Remote Work: A double edged sword: If these areas did not benefit as much from the shift to remote work like larger metro areas, they may be seeing a correction as people return to offices.

It's likely a combination of these factors that's contributing to the predicted declines.

What Does This Mean for Homeowners?

If you own a home in one of these areas, this forecast might be unsettling. But before you panic, consider these points:

• Long-term perspective: Real estate is a long-term investment. A short-term dip doesn't necessarily negate long-term gains.
• Local market knowledge: National forecasts are just that – national. Your local market conditions could be different. Talk to a local real estate agent for a more nuanced perspective.
• Don't make rash decisions: Selling in a panic could lead to a loss. Assess your situation carefully and make informed decisions.
• Consider improvements: If you're not planning to sell soon, focus on home improvements that will increase its value and your enjoyment of it.

Opportunities for Buyers?

On the other hand, potential buyers might see this as an opportunity. If prices do decline, it could become more affordable to buy a home in these areas. However, it's crucial to:

• Do your research: Understand the local market conditions and why prices are declining.
• Factor in long-term costs: Consider property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs.
• Don't rush: Take your time to find the right property at the right price.
• Get pre-approved: Know how much you can afford before you start looking.

Beyond the Numbers: My Personal Take

While Zillow's forecast is a valuable data point, it's important to remember that it's just that – a forecast. No one has a crystal ball, and the housing market is influenced by a multitude of factors that are difficult to predict with certainty.

In my experience, local market knowledge is paramount. What's happening in New York City is drastically different from what's happening in rural Texas. That's why it's crucial to consult with local real estate professionals who understand the nuances of your specific market.

I also believe that fear and greed are often the biggest drivers of market fluctuations. When everyone is panicking, opportunities can arise. Conversely, when everyone is euphoric, it's often a sign that a correction is coming.

The Bigger Picture: A National Perspective

Even with these predicted declines in specific areas, the overall housing market remains complex. Factors like low inventory, rising construction costs, and demographic trends will continue to play a role in shaping the market's future.

It's also worth noting that Zillow's national forecast is not a prediction of a widespread housing market crash. A 1.7% decline is a correction, not a collapse.

Final Thoughts: Staying Informed and Making Smart Choices

The housing markets predicted to decline in double digits by March 2026 may create both challenges and opportunities. Whether you're a homeowner or a potential buyer, the key is to stay informed, do your research, and make smart choices based on your individual circumstances and local market conditions. Don't let fear or greed dictate your decisions. Instead, rely on data, expert advice, and a long-term perspective.

Remember, the real estate market is constantly evolving. What's true today might not be true tomorrow. So, keep learning, keep adapting, and keep an eye on the horizon.